Nam Long Group (HOSE: NLG) | Cập Nhật Q4/2025, MUA - Kỳ vọng 1N +53.0%

AMPLE CASH FLOW, SECURED PROFIT FROM RECORD PRESALES AND STRATEGIC DIVESTMENT

For Q4 2025, NLG recorded revenue of VND 1,704.2bn (-73.2% YoY, -9.2% QoQ), down YoY due to the high base of Akari Phase 2 handovers in late 2024. Revenue came from handover of villas in Southgate (56.6% of revenue) and low-rise units in Can Tho (19.3% of revenue).

Despite the drop in topline, NPAT-MI for the quarter reached VND 347.7bn (-30% YoY, + 138.2% QoQ) thanks to a significant one-off gain from the divestment of a 15.1% stake in the Izumi City project.

For FY2025, revenue arrived at VND 5,645.4bn (-21.6% YoY), achieving 83.1% of the management guidance and 114.2% of our forecast. NPAT-MI 2025, however, rose to VND 701.4bn (+35.4% YoY) because a 94.7% surge in financial income, fueled by the VND 489bn gain from the Izumi City stake sale.  The financial income more than offset the revenue contraction and a non-recurring "other expense" of VND 357bn, effectively strengthening the company's net profit position. NPAT-MI met 100% of the management guidance and 100.8% of our forecast.

Notably, in Q4 2025 NLG recorded presales of approximately VND 6,800bn, representing a massive jump of +308% YoY and +318% QoQ as management successfully accelerated inventory conversion at projects like Southgate.  For FY2025, total presales reached VND 11,855bn (+127.8% YoY), building a solid backlog for 2026 onwards.

With NLG’s 2025 NPAT-MI landing in line with our projections, we reiterate our core assumptions. However, we are revising our FY2026 revenue and earnings forecasts to VND 4,612bn (-18.3% YoY) and VND 916.7bn (+30.7% YoY), respectively. The primary adjustment to the top-line reflects the Izumi City divestment; following the transaction, Izumi’s revenue will no longer be consolidated into NLG’s financial statements.

Following a period of market correction due to rising interest rate environment, NLG is currently trading at VND 28,600/share as of February 05, 2026.  This price offers a 53.0% upside to our VND 43,750/share target price. Considering the attractive valuation gap and stable fundamental performance, we reiterate our BUY rating.

FY 2025 Performance Overview

o       Presales: VND 11,855bn (+127% YoY, completing 80.9% of NLG’s guidance and beating our 2025 forecast by 27.0%).

o       Net Revenue: VND 5,645.4bn (-21.6% YoY, completing 83.1% of NLG’s guidance and beating our 2025 forecast by 14.2%)

o       Profit Before Tax: VND 1,188 (-34.9% YoY)

o       NPAT-MI: VND 6,445.9bn (+35.4% YoY, fulfilled 100% of NLG’s guidance and came in line with our 2025 forecast)