Vietnam Strategy Report Mid-Year 2025 | Tariff Concerns Behind, A New Chapter Unfolds

SBBS H2 2025 Strategy: Tariff Concerns Behind, a New Chapter Unfolds highlights the macro landscape, our forecast for H2 2025, and key sectoral catalysts that guide our stock selection going into year-end. Here are some of the key highlights in our report:

Macro Snapshot: Global & Vietnam

o       Global: Slower growth across developed economies (esp. U.S. and EU) as monetary policy stays restrictive amid sticky inflation. China’s recovery remains uneven, providing limited spillover to emerging markets.

o       Vietnam: Strongest GDP Growth in H1 2025 in 11 years, resilient domestic demand, improving FDI disbursement, and stable macro fundamentals. Government stimulus programs via public spending are key drivers for economic growth.

Our Forecast Key 2025 Metrics

We see compelling fundamentals and anticipate sustained foreign capital inflows into Vietnam’s equity market, supported by the following key drivers:

o       Favorable global positioning – Vietnam stands to benefit from recent U.S. tariff realignments and maintains a competitive edge in comparison to regional peers.

o       Robust fiscal support – A sizable stimulus package is being deployed to sustain growth momentum despite external headwinds.

o       Currency stability – A softer U.S. dollar, coupled with resilient export prospects, reduces pressure on the Vietnamese Dong and enhances macro stability.

o       Strong Q2 performance – Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.96% in Q2, significantly outpacing regional economies such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

o       Policy conviction – The government has shown clear determination and coordination in driving reforms and unlocking investment bottlenecks.

Top sectors / themes:

o       Banking (TCB, VPB,…): Robust balance sheets, Strong credit growth, Possible improvement in net interest margin (NIM) expansion compared to 1H 2025, Solid earnings outlook, Improving asset quality.

o       Real Estate (KDH, TCH,…): Accelerating infrastructure development, Gradual recovery in the property market, On-going policy support from the government.

o       Brokerage (SSI, VCI,…): Increased market liquidity, Vietnam’s potential EM upgrade, Margin lending expansion, Healthy earnings growth, Potential sector-wide valuation re-rating