Vietnam Strategy Report for 2026 | Back to the Fundamentals

Our outlook for 2026 reflects a transition toward a more balanced and risk-controlled expansion, with GDP growth projected at approximately 8%. Growth will likely be increasingly driven by public investment, retail consumption, and FDI-linked exports, while global headwinds and tighter domestic liquidity conditions may create higher volatility compared to previous cycles.

Key highlights from our 2026 outlook include:

o       Macroeconomic View: A resilient yet externally sensitive economy, with greater exposure to global shocks and structural liquidity pressures within the banking system.

o       Market Characteristics: Retail-driven market dynamics, elevated margin levels, and rising interest rates could lead to wider index fluctuations. Active portfolio management may outperform passive strategies in this environment.

o       Investment Themes:

1.         Public & Infrastructure Expansion

2.      Trade & Manufacturing Growth

3.      Retail & Consumption Recovery

4.      Financial Sector Normalization

We also outline key risks to monitor, including monetary policy shifts, liquidity conditions in the real estate sector, and potential disruptions from AI and automation in global supply chains.

We believe 2026 will reward disciplined capital allocation and selective positioning in sectors aligned with structural growth drivers.