Q3 2025 Macro Report: Economic Growth Momentum Holds Strong

Q3 2025 Macro Report: Economic Growth Momentum Holds Strong, provides the latest updates on Vietnam macroeconomic developments in the third quarter and our view/forecast on Q4 2025.                

Below are the Key Highlights:

• Major Macro Indications: Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in Q3 2025. GDP in the quarter grew 8.23% YoY, bringing 9M 2025 GDP growth to 7.85%. This is highest nine-month performance in 14 years, supported by strong domestic demand and faster public investment disbursement. Inflation reached 3.27% YTD, while manufacturing activity stayed mildly expansionary with PMI at 50.4 in September. The Vietnamese Dong has depreciated about 3.5% YTD, prompting the State Bank (SBV) to intervene through selling forward US Dollar contracts to commercial banks. Trade surplus remained solid at USD 16.8bn, though new U.S. tariffs on wood and furniture exports present fresh headwinds.
• Meanwhile, geopolitical tension escalated as the U.S. announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports effective November 2025. Regardless, The IMF October 2025 WEO adjusts up its global FY2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%, from 3.0% in July estimation.