October 2025 Macro and Fixed Income Update | Balancing Liquidity And FX Stability Amid Strong Funding Demand

The report provides the latest updates on Vietnam’s macroeconomic conditions and fixed income market developments for October 2025. Below are the key highlights:

Macro Highlights: Vietnam’s economy continued to show solid momentum.

o       Inflation in October remained contained with CPI at +3.25% YoY (+0.2% MoM), while 10-month average CPI was 3.27% and core inflation averaged 3.20% over the same period.

o       Industrial production strengthened, with PMI rising to 54.5 (from 50.4 in September) and IIP up +10.8% YoY, driven by processing and export-oriented sectors.

o        Strong trade turnover: Vietnam’s total trade reached US$ 81.5bn in October, up +17.2% YoY and -1.2% MoM). In 10M2025, total trade hit US$ 762.4bn (+17.4% YoY) and trade surplus stood at US$ 19.56bn.

Fixed Income Market Highlights: System liquidity was supported but uneven, reflected in rate volatility.

o      Government bond issuance recovered, with VND 55.5tn issued in October and 10M issuance reaching VND 311tn (62% of plan). The 10Y yield rose to ~3.95% (+19bps MoM).

o     Corporate bond issuance continued to strengthen, totaling ~VND 482tn YTD (+44.5% YoY) in 10M, led primarily by banks (~68%) and real estate (~23%). Early redemptions reached ~VND 247tn (+49% YoY), easing near-term maturity pressure.