November 2025 Macro and Fixed Income Update | Liquidity Tightness Pushes Interest Rates Higher Across Markets

The report provides the latest updates on Vietnam’s macroeconomic conditions and fixed income market developments for November 2025. Below are the key highlights:

Macro Highlights: Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in November 2025, yet CPI edged up and exports fell for a second month amid natural crisis and softer U.S. demand.

o       CPI rose 3.58% YoY (+0.45% MoM),staying within the government’s 4% target. 

o       Exports reached US$ 39.1 bn in November (−7.1% MoM, +15.1% YoY), bringing 11M exports to US$ 430bn (+15.8% YoY). The month’s trade surplus stood at ~US$ 1.1bn, lifting the 11M surplus to ~US$ 20.5bn despite softer shipments to the U.S. for the fourth consecutive month.

o       Domestic demand was softened with MoM up slightly 0.5% due to disruption from natural disasters.

o       Exchange rate: VND/USD continued to face pressure in November after stabilizing in October with central rate edged up to 26,369 (+51 VND MoM).

o       Credit growth continued to accelerate, with total outstanding loans reached over VND 18.2 quadrillion by 27 November 2025 +16.6% YTD while deposit growth trailing at only 9.8% by end of September.

Fixed Income Market Highlights: System liquidity faced severe strain in November, driving interest rates higher across all markets.

o       The SBV maintained its strongest support since 2017, pushing outstanding OMO to a record VND 354tn. Despite this large-scale infusion, ON rates consistently breached 6%, peaking at 6.44% before stabilizing at 5.4% as the widening gap between credit growth and deposit mobilization. This forced banks to compete aggressively for liquidity to ensure capital safety ratios.

o       Government bond issuance rebounded strongly yet yields continued to adjust higher across the curve. The State Treasury issued VND 23.5tn (+13.1% YoY) in November, while yields rose 7–8bps across maturities, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.03%. 

o       The VND faced renewed pressure after stabilizing in October, with the interbank rate edging up to 25,155 (+62 VND MoM) despite a cooling DXY. This divergence was driven by persistent domestic liquidity shortages and seasonal import demand, while the grey-market rate remained volatile, surging to over 27,730 (+0.6% MoM). 

o       Corporate bond issuance accelerated, with 11M 2025 total issuance reaching ~VND 511tn, already surpassing the full-year 2024 result.