March 2026 Macro and Fixed Income Update | Strongest Q1 GDP Growth in Decade Amid Tighten Liquidity

The report provides the latest updates on Vietnam’s macroeconomic conditions and fixed income market developments for March 2026.

Below are the key highlights:

Macro Highlight: Vietnam achieved highest Q1 GDP growth in over a decade, anchored by a strong trade surplus and robust FDI inflows

o       GDP Growth: Q1 2026 GDP growth arrived at 7.86%, the highest Q1 in over a decade, driven by (i) Manufacturing & exports expansion (ii) Strong public investment disbursement and (iii) Stable domestic retail consumption.

o       CPI: March CPI rose 1.23% MoM and 4.65% YoY (5-year high), driven by rising fuel costs amid Iran-US conflict. Q1 2026 CPI averaged 3.51% YoY and core inflation stood at 3.63% YoY), indicating inflation remains broadly contained despite energy volatility.

o       Trade: March exports reached US$ 46.44bn (+40.3% MoM; +20.1% YoY), while March imports totaled US$ 47.11bn (+38.2% MoM; +27.8% YoY). Overall Q1 2026 trade turnover grew 23.0% YoY to US$ 249.5bn. Q1 2026 export totaled to US$ 122.93bn and Q1 2026 Import of US$ 126.57bn with a US$ 3.64bn deficit.

o       FDI: Foreign investment remained a bright spot in Q1 2026. Total registered FDI hit US$ 15.2bn (+42.9% YoY), driven by a wave of new large-scale projects in the high-tech sector. Disbursed FDI reached a 5-year high of US$ 5.41 bn (+9.1% YoY), reflecting strong investor commitment to Vietnam’s long-term manufacturing capacity.

Fixed Income Market Highlights: Liquidity Tightening and Yield Curve Elevation amid Exchange Rate Stability Efforts.

o      Liquidity: Continued to be tight as credit growth outpace deposit and demand for new projects are high. In March, SBV also maintained a tightening stance, withdrawing VND115tn in March, bringing the OMO outstanding balance at one point down to VND 178tn. Interbank rates continued to fluctuate in wide range, peaking at 11.42%.

o      Deposit rate hiked: Banks rushed on a deposit race started from early March. 6M deposit rate has increased to 7.4-7.5% at SOCBs, with even higher levels offered by private banks. this dynamic increasingly resembles a “chicken game” as system-wide deposits have not materially expanded, and banks effectively competing to attract liquidity away from one another rather than bringing in new funds.

o      USD/VND: DXY strength pushed the grey market rate toward 28,080. Liquidity withdrawals successfully raised USD speculation costs and narrowed the VN–US yield differential as US yields rebounded, stabilizing the local currency toward month-end.

o      Government bonds: G-bond issuance in March declined sharply to VND 20tn (-70.1% YoY, -43.3% MoM) with a 50.9% winning rate. YTD issuance stood at VND 80.1tn ( 27.5% YoY). Conversely, liquidity in the secondary market surged 73.8% MoM to VND 379.7tn in March. The yield curve shifted upward, led by a 32bps jump in the 5Y tenor.

o      Corporate bond: Q1 2026 sentiment recovered with Real Estate sector accounting for 53% of Q1 2026 total issued. Marina Center’s VND 10.2tn, 10-year tenor. The average coupon edged up to 8.7%, tracking higher benchmark G-bond yields.