February 2026 Macro and Fixed Income Update | Liquidity Tightened and FX Pressures Emerged

The report provides the latest updates on Vietnam’s macroeconomic conditions and fixed income market developments for February 2026.

Below are the key highlights:

Macro Highlight: Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in Feb 2026, though signs of cooling emerged as CPI edged up coincided with a third consecutive month of trade deficit

o       CPI: February CPI rose 3.35% YoY (+1.14% MoM), driven by price increases in food, services, and transport. Industrial activity remained expansionary with a PMI of 54.3; however, IIP growth moderated to 1.0% YoY due to fewer working days during the Tet holiday.

o       Trade: Feb exports reached US$ 33.06bn (-23.7% MoM; +5.7% YoY), bringing 2M2026 total to US$ 76.36bn. Monthly imports totaled US$ 34.1bn (-24.6% MoM; +4.4% YoY), resulting in a YTD figure of US$ 79.34bn. Overall 2M2026 trade turnover grew 22.2% YoY to US$ 155.7bn, yielding a US$ 2.98bn deficit, third consecutive month reporting negative balance.

o       Retail consumption: February retail sales reached VND 613.7tn (+8.5% YoY), reflecting a post-Tet deceleration, driven by household goods, apparel, and F&B sectors. In addition, 2M2026 international arrivals rose 18.1% YoY to 4.7 million, supporting the broader recovery in tourism-related consumption.

o       Credit growth: Continued to accelerate, +1.4% YTD as total outstanding loans reached over VND 18.86 quadrillion by Feb 26 2026, signaling robust demand for funding across the economy.

Fixed Income Market Highlights: Exchange Rate under Pressure amid Converging Systemic Liquidity Volatility and Geopolitical Inflationary Risks.

o      Liquidity: Liquidity tightened significantly in early February before stabilizing toward month-end. Outstanding OMO peaked at VND 450tn following a VND 160tn net injection by the SBV to alleviate pressure on February 3, when the overnight (ON) rate surged to 16.4%. By month-end, outstanding OMO declined to VND 366tn as the ON rate eased to 4.7%. Concurrently, 1W, 1M, and 3M interbank rates adjusted to 6.6%, 7.9%, and 7.5%, respectively.

o      USD/VND: The exchange rate remained volatile and strengthened toward month-end. The interbank rate rose to 26,055 (+VND 115 MoM), while the greymarket rate briefly surged to 27,250 before easing to 26,680 (+0.9% MoM). Upward pressure on USD/VND was driven by escalating U.S.–Iran geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility, and a stronger DXY, weighing on the VND.

o      Government bonds: February issuance reached VND 34.5tn (+18.5% YoY), completing 12.1% of VND 500tn annual target. The yield curve shifted upward, with the 5Y yield rising 15bps, while the Vietnam–U.S. government bond spread turned positive.

o      Corporate bond: February issuance reached VND 3.4tn, following VND 3.2tn in January, concentrated in banking (~65%), real estate (~16.5%), and agriculture & fisheries (~11.8%). Issuance is expected to accelerate later in the year as tighter bank credit to the real estate sector increases reliance on bond financing.