December 2025 Macro and Fixed Income Update | Resilient Growth, Record Trade and Credit Momentum

The report provides the latest updates on Vietnam’s macroeconomic conditions and fixed income market developments for December 2025.

Below are the key highlights:

Vietnam’s economy concluded 2025 on a high note, with GDP reached 8.02% and a historical peak in trade turnover.

o       CPI eased slightly to 3.48% YoY (+0.19% MoM) in December, bringing the full-year average to 3.31%. Industrial activity maintained its expansionary momentum with PMI at 53.0, and IIP growth a  10.1% YoY.

o       Record trade & export performance: December exports reached US$ 44.03bn (+12.6% MoM, +23.8% YoY), driving the full-year export volume to US$ 475bn (+17% YoY). Total trade reached US$ 930 bn, first time above US$ 930 bn, trade surplus reached US$ 20.03bn, surpassing the MoIT’s target.

o       Strong year-end retail & consumer activity, with December retail sales reaching VND 627.8tn (+4.4% MoM, +10.0% YoY). The recovery was bolstered by goods, accommodation & food service, tourism (over 2 million international visitors (+15.7% YoY).

o       Bank credit growth surged significantly with total outstanding loans surged to over VND 18.4 quadrillion by late December, credit growth hit a 5-year high, reaching +17.87% YTD. Credit-to-GDP reached all time high at  146%.

o       O/N rate peaked 7.22% in December, reflect tight liquidity in the system.

Fixed Income Market Highlights: Liquidity Strain Persisted despite Record OMO Support and Easing FX.

o       Systemic liquidity remained under high pressure throughout December due to seasonal year-end demand. Outstanding OMO balance hit a historical peak of VND 442tn. Despite large-scale infusion, interbank rates showed high volatility, with ON rates peaking at 7.22% before dropping to 1.8% at year-end, while 1W–3M rates remained elevated. SBV raised the OMO bidding rate to 4.5% and introduced proactive USD/VND FX swaps.

o       Q4 G-Bond issuance peaked at VND 42.6tn, led by the 10Y tenor. Winning yields rose across all maturities, with the 10Y up 14 bps to 4.0%. While primary activity was strong, secondary liquidity remained thin amid concerns over inflation and exchange rates. The Vietnam–U.S. 5Y spread stabilized as local rates rose against steady U.S. yields.

o       The VND stabilized in December, reversing its depreciation trend. The interbank rate eased to 25,121 (-34 VND MoM), while the grey-market rate fell 3.3% MoM to ~26,820, supported by a weaker DXY, Fed rate cuts, and strong year-end export and FDI inflows. Proactive FX swaps enhanced SBV’s flexibility in balancing liquidity and FX stability.

o       Corporate bond issuance accelerated in December to VND 48.5tn, bringing 2025 total issuance to ~VND 575.4tn, dominated by banks (~68%) raising Tier-2 capital. Under tighter funding conditions, average coupons rose to 8.0% while tenors shortened to 5.2 years.