April 2026 Macro and Fixed Income Update | Rising Inflation Pressure

The report provides the latest updates on Vietnam’s macroeconomic conditions and fixed income market developments for April 2026.

Below are the key highlights:

Macro Highlight: Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, recovering tourism activity, and continued pro-growth policy support, despite mounting inflationary pressure and rising external uncertainties.

o       CPI: April 2026 CPI increased 0.84% MoM and 5.46% YoY, the highest level since January 2020, mainly due to higher gasoline, food, and construction material prices. Average CPI and core inflation in 4M 2026 rose by 3.99% YoY and 3.89% YoY, respectively.

o       Trade: April exports reached US$45.52bn (-2.0% MoM; +21.6% YoY), while April imports totaled US$48.8bn (+3.6% MoM; +32.4% YoY). Overall, 4M 2026 trade turnover grew 24.2% YoY to US$344.17bn, with exports of US$168.53bn and imports of US$175.64bn, resulting in a US$7.11bn trade deficit, compared with a US$4.3bn surplus in the same period last year.

o       FDI: FDI remained a bright spot in 4M 2026, with registered FDI reaching US$18.24bn (+32% YoY), mainly driven by the manufacturing & processing and utilities sectors. Disbursed FDI rose to US$7.4bn (+9.8% YoY), with the manufacturing & processing sector accounting for 82.7%.

o       Credit Growth: Reached 4.42% YTD as of April 28, while deposit growth was only around 1% YTD. This widening gap between credit and deposit growth continued to exert upward pressure on system liquidity and interbank interest rates.

Fixed Income Market Highlights: SBV’s liquidity support eased systemic stress.

o       SBV Pivot to Net Injection: The SBV shifted to a net injection of VND19.5tn via the OMO channel (7–56 day tenors). This proactive move successfully cooled the interbank market, driving the overnight rate down from a peak of 8.81% to 3.88% by month-end, effectively easing the systemic liquidity stress seen in Q1.

o       USD/VND: The USD/VND exchange rate saw a sharp correction in April 2026, particularly in the grey market, where the rate declined by VND750 to end the month at 26,800 (-4.6% from the March peak). While the central exchange rate remained stable at elevated levels (VND25,100–25,113), the sharp correction in free-market rates narrowed the gap with bank rates significantly compared to the Q1 peak.

o       Government Bonds: Issuance volume reached VND45.5tn (+7.1% YoY; +132% MoM), completing 25.1% of the 2026 plan. While winning yields rose by 5–26bps due to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a narrowing VN–US spread, market absorption remained robust, particularly for the 10Y tenor, which accounted for 92% of total issuance volume.

o       Corporate Bond: New issuances surged to VND37.7tn (+144% YoY), led by the real estate and banking sectors. However, the average coupon rate climbed to 9.4%, indicating that issuers are accepting higher funding costs to secure capital amid tightening credit conditions and refinancing pressure.