Daily Market Watch 30/09/2026: Q3 Finished In a Negative Note. The Market Retreated Due to the Lack of Catalyst.

TODAY MARKET MOVEMENT

o    The market traded in a narrow range before a late-afternoon selling pressure driven by Vingroup and Oil & Gas stocks dragged the VN-Index down 0.51% at close. The Large Cap Index declined 0.4% as blue chips outside the banking group faced selling from both foreign and domestic investors. The Mid Cap and Small Cap indices fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Gelex stocks alongside retail names bucked the broader weakness on decent local accumulation. There were several noticeable stock movements at the end of quarter, but those window dressing activities are not quite visible in the broad market. Market breadth remained negative at 178 decliners versus 129 gainers.

o    Liquidity improved from the previous session due to but stayed well below the year-to-date average. Total trading value on HOSE rose 23% DoD to USD585mn. Foreign investors extended their net selling streak to six consecutive sessions with a USD34mn outflow.VHM led foreign selling with -USD12.7mn and tumbled 1.9%. TCB (-USD6.0mn) and VIC (-USD3.2mn) followed. Foreign buying was modest with HDB (+USD1.4mn) while FRT and MSN attracted +USD1.3mn each

MAJOR UPDATES AND DEVELOPMENTS

o    Oil & Gas tumbled as WTI oil price fell 3.5% to below USD90/barrel following reports that Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea oil exports are recovering rapidly after the East-West pipeline resumed operations. GAS (-3.42%), BSR (-3.38%), PVT (-4.61%), PVP (-4.57%), PVD (-3.43%) and PLX (-2.33%) all retreated. These names had rallied sharply in recent weeks on expectations of a decent 3Q26 earnings amid elevated global oil prices. Most faced a heavy selling pressure/profit taking today

o    Financials edged down 0.1% with divergent moves across the group. Private banks staged a recovery after several sessions of foreign-led net selling with VPB (+1.96%), LPB (+1.15%) and MSB (+1.07%) leading the rebound. Meanwhile, the ON interbank rate surged to 8% today after falling to a four-year low of 0.5% the day before.

o    Brokerages retreated amid expectations on weaker 3Q26 earnings due to the unfavorable market conditions during the quarter. HCM (-2.66%), VIX (-1.20%) and VND (-1.07%) fell amid sizeable foreign and domestic outflows.

o    Real estate lost 1.0% as Vingroup stocks weighed on the group. VHM (-1.86%) and VIC (-0.91%) came under sizeable foreign selling with nearly 5mn VHM shares sold by overseas investors. Elevated interest rates continued to weigh on purchasing power and property market liquidity, which raised concerns over earnings prospects. The rest of the group traded in a narrow range with mixed moves.

o    NVL (-0.49%) traded on its ex-rights date for Novaland’s rights offering to existing shareholders. The company plans to offer nearly 800.7mn shares at VND10,000/share on a 3:1 basis. NVL recorded more than 97mn shares in matched transactions worth around VND962bn which accounted for nearly 6.5% of total market turnover. The heavy overhang at limit down price was consumed quickly as the stock approached the issuance price

o    PNJ (-7%) closed at the limit-down price for a third consecutive session. PNJ added proposals to its 2026 EGM agenda for a private placement of up to 550mn common shares to professional investors and the transfer of more than VND4.6tn from its Development Investment Fund into undistributed after-tax profit. The company also revised its gold and diamond buyback policy by shortening cash payment periods for selected high-liquidity products. SJC gold bars, ring gold and selected PNJ gold products will be paid in full after two days while other jewelry categories will be paid after seven days. Diamond jewelry, jewellery shells, colored gemstones, pearls and loose diamonds remain subject to payment terms of up to T+120.

o    Industrials gained 0.3% on solid gains across the GELEX complex. GEE (+5.14%), VGC (+4.65%) and GEX (+0.84%) moved higher on active domestic participation. Other names faced more subdued trading amid retail selling with CII (-2.02%), CTD (-1.84%) and VSC (-2.95%) moving lower.

o    Rubber stocks continued to attract interest on expectations for stronger earnings as rubber prices stayed elevated. Earnings prospects are supported by: (1) higher rubber prices alongside a recovery in oil prices and natural rubber shortages across several major producing markets such as Thailand. Rubber prices have risen 8% over the past month and 47% YoY, and (2) Some companies could also receive cash proceeds from land-conversion compensation and rubber-tree liquidation. TRC (+3.57%) and PHR (+2.60%) added decent gain while GVR climbed nearly +5% intraday before closing flat as afternoon profit-taking emerged.

o    Consumer Discretionary edged up 0.03% as modern retail chains are expected to deliver solid 3Q26 results.Total retail sales of goods and consumer services reached VND5,235.5tn in 8M26 which represented 13.3% YoY growth or 7.6% in real terms after adjusting for price effects. August growth accelerated to 14.9% YoY, suggesting improvement in domestic purchasing power. FRT (+3.52%) and MWG (+0.70%) traded higher as a result.

o    Vietnam – HOSE launches Vietnam Private Growth Index VNPRIVGRO: On September 29, HOSE issued the rules for the VNPRIVGRO index, which aims to track large private-sector companies with good liquidity and growth potential. The index comprises 30 stocks selected from the VNAllshare basket, with eligible companies required to meet liquidity criteria and have state ownership of no more than 15%. The index will include no more than eight stocks from each GICS industry group and will be reviewed semi-annually in January and July.