Daily Market Watch 25/09/2026: Vingroup Family Pushed The Index. The Broad Market Was Quiet Though

TODAY MARKET MOVEMENT

o     The market traded in a narrow range throughout the morning before accelerating in the afternoon as Vingroup stocks and selected blue-chip banks rallied, lifting the VN-Index to close 0.6% higher. An unexpected move emerged shortly after the afternoon open following news that VPB was in talks with a potential partner for a stake sale. VPB briefly hit the ceiling price before easing to a 4.07% gain as profit-taking emerged. Together with VIC and VHM, the bank at one point pushed the VN-Index close to 1,800 points. The move prompted investors to become more active in the afternoon, with trading value rising 54% from the morning session.

o     The Large Cap basket outperformed (+0.7%), supported by decent jump in four Vingroup names and selected private banks including TCB, VPB, LPB and MBB. The Mid Cap and Small Cap pool however fell 0.2% on subdued liquidity, with brokerages and property names bearing most of the downward pressure as investors trimmed exposure. Market breadth remained negative at 179 decliners versus 140 gainers.

o     Liquidity was subdued as total trading value on HOSE fell 9% DoD to USD584mn. Foreign investors extended their net selling streak to three consecutive sessions with a USD10mn outflow today, bringing cumulative net selling for the week to USD100mn. Foreign purchases focused on selected Large and Mid-Cap names led by SBT (+USD9.5mn), followed by BSR (+USD4.2mn) and MSR (+USD1.8mn). Despite receiving net foreign buying of around 1mn shares, MSR retreated sharply on heavy profit-taking after jumping over 70% from its late-July trough. Foreign outflows were concentrated in TCB (-USD3.8mn), MSB (-USD3.8mn) and HPG (-USD3.0mn).

MAJOR UPDATES AND DEVELOPMENTS

o     Financials rose 0.3% as large private banks led the sector higher. The interbank rate eased sharply to around 1% following SBV liquidity support through OMO operations and USD/VND FX swaps. This reinforced expectations of more accommodative liquidity conditions. Large private lenders including TCB (+0.91%), HDB (+0.54%) and MBB (+0.25%) advanced on solid local accumulation.

o     VPB (+4.07%) led the banking sector after reports that SMBC is considering a market purchase to raise its stake to 20%. According to Reuters, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) is considering purchasing more than 600mn VPB shares on the market to raise its stake in VPBank to around 20%. This would allow SMBC to increase its ownership without participating in VPBank’s planned private placement. The two sides are targeting completion this year although valuation remains under discussion according to two Reuters sources. Negotiations have been ongoing for several months.

o    Brokerages faced heavy selling pressure from both foreign and local outflows. Many worries over weaker 3Q26 earnings as (1) market liquidity has stayed subdued despite the EM upgrade, and (2) high interest-rate environment was another headwind. VCI (-1.49%), DSE (-1.14%) and VDS (-1.90%) adjusted as a result.

o     Real estate gained 1.5% as Vingroup names rebounded. VHM (+5.66%) advanced after attracting net foreign purchases of around 1.5mn shares while VIC (+0.87%) and VRE (+1.45%) benefited from strong domestic accumulation. The broader sector was weak as investors continued to factor in higher borrowing costs and weak liquidity. HDC (-3.04%), DXS (-3.02%) and NVL (-2.87%) fell sharply amid heavy foreign and local disposal.

o     Industrials rose 0.5% after several sessions of declines. PET extended its rally with a 6.67% gain on continued domestic accumulation and has now advanced over 20% this week. Transportation stocks also performed well on expectations for solid 3Q26 earnings. As of mid-September, Vietnam’s total import-export turnover for the quarter was up nearly 30% YoY. Meanwhile, cargo throughput across the country’s seaport system is projected to increase by nearly 22%. HAH (+4.76%), VOS (+4.17%) and GMD (+1.44%) moved higher on the outlook.

o     Rubber stocks also advanced following ANRPC’s forecast that global natural rubber demand will exceed supply in 2026. ANRPC projects global natural rubber demand at 15.356mn tonnes in 2026, 77,000 tonnes above estimated supply of 15.279mn tonnes. The association expects rubber consumption to gradually increase toward the final months of 2026. This further supports expectations for positive 3Q26 earnings across rubber names. Hence, GVR (+0.30%), PHR (+1.41%) and DRI (+1.34%) posted modest gains on solid local accumulation while TRC (-0.66%) moved against the sector trend.