Daily Market Watch 10/08/2026: Broad Rally Thanks to Expectation of Interest Rate Drop / VNM 2Q26 Update (Add, +15% Upside)/ CTD 2Q26 (Buy, +38.5% Upside)

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

o      The market opened lower as Vingroup stocks came under heavy selling. All four names fell 2–3% in early trading. VHM dropped 3% as investors were disappointed to its weak performance following the 1:1 stock dividend. The selling pressure pushed the VN-Index to an intraday low of 0.51% or nearly nine points amid the relatively decent performance of other names in the broad market.

o      Despite the weakness in Vingroup stocks, the blue chips basket stayed positive as investors were more optimistic regarding improving liquidity conditions: (1) the PM is expected to meet with the SBV and the banking system on August 12 to review lending rates, credit growth and exchange rates control. (2) Under the State capital restructuring plan for 2026–2030, ministries, local authorities, and State ownership representatives must prepare and approve plans for State capital arrangements at enterprises by August 31, 2026. Investors responded positively to the prospect of further divestment and an expanded free float that could improve liquidity. (3) The SBV injected a net of USD900mn over the past week and (4) WTI oil price fell 7% during the week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. Hence, large-cap banks including VPB, ACB, and STB gained more than 1%. TCB standout with a 4% surge on strong retail buying. GAS, GVR, and other SOE stocks also rose sharply as investors bet on the  State divestment theme. SSI gained 2% after announcing a 10% cash dividend for 2025 at VND1,000/share and a 500.22mn bonus shares issuance at a 5:1 ratio. 14 blue chips gained more than 1%. The VN-Index ended the morning session up 0.7% as a result. Market breadth was strongly positive with 211 gainers against 96 decliners.

o     Mid-cap stocks continued to outperform in the afternoon as buying spread further across the market. BCM hit the ceiling for another day. DMX gained nearly 5% as investors continued to react positively to its coming corporate actions. The company wll pay cash dividend of VND4,000/share in August and is considering a 1:1 bonus share plan using its share premium. High-beta stocks also moved higher. VGC hit the limit up price on strong retail buying while GEX, VHC, VIX, CTS, and CII gained 2–4%. These names had fallen 20–30% after several rounds of margin calls and were seeing renewed interest from investors. Brokerage stocks also recovered with VDS, TVS, VIX, CTS, and SSI all gaining more than 2%. Real estate developers including DXG, HDC, NLG, and NVL rose 1–3%. The mid-cap group ended with 64 gainers against only four decliners. Two stocks hit the ceiling.

o    The VN-Index ended up 0.5% as Vingroup stocks extended their losses. VIC (-3.02%) and VHM (-1.92%) remained the main drag on the Index. Market breadth improved further with 245 gainers against 88 decliners. The VN30 Index rose 0.7% as stocks on the SOE divestment list continued to perform well. Private banks also saw strong retail buying. The VNMID Index outperformed with a 1.7% gain while the VNSML rose 1.1% with five stocks hitting the ceiling.

o     Trading activity remained quiet despite the broader market gains. Total trading value on HOSE rose just 2% to USD683mn. Foreign investors turned net sellers of USD10.8mn and ended their recent buying streak. TCB (-USD13.9mn), VHM (-USD9.5mn), and FPT (-USD3.2mn) saw the largest foreign outflows. DMX (+USD6.5mn) led foreign buying for a second consecutive session. SHB (+USD2.7mn) and VNM (+USD2.5mn) followed.