Daily Market Watch 09/07/2025: JP Morgan Upgrades Vietnam to Overweight, VN-Index Surges on Record Liquidity

THE EQUITY MARKET

o        The Vietnamese equity market continued its strong bullish momentum today, driven by a wave of positive sentiment from both local and foreign investors. The catalyst was a notable upgrade from JP Morgan Securities, which released its Global Equity Strategy report upgrading Vietnam to “Overweight” within ASEAN, alongside Singapore and the Philippines. Meanwhile, Indonesia and Malaysia were kept at “Neutral,” and Thailand is recommended to “Underweight.”

o        JP Morgan outlined several reasons for its bullish stance on Vietnam: (1) a more favorable-than-expected outcome from recent U.S. tariff policies, (2) a sizable fiscal stimulus that is expected to support robust GDP growth this year despite global headwinds, (3) a weaker U.S. dollar that gives the State Bank of Vietnam more monetary flexibility, and (4) growing evidence of foreign investors re-engaging with Vietnam’s equity market. The broker was especially impressed with Vietnam’s 2Q25 GDP growth of 8% YoY—one of the highest in the region—and revised its VN-Index target to 1,500 in the base case and 1,600 in the bull case, up from 1,300/1,450. It also specifically recommended overweighting Banks (TCB and VCB), Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors as key beneficiaries of the domestic growth story.

o        The report quickly spread among local investors and helped fuel even stronger optimism. Investors interpreted this as a signal of sustained and potentially increasing foreign inflows. Indeed, foreign investors have already net bought over USD 370 million in just 6 recent trading days, following the U.S. government's new tariff framework announcement last week—a level not seen in recent years. Typically, much of this foreign capital flowed into large-cap stocks, providing a significant lift to the VN-Index.

o        The VN-Index jumped 1.12% to close at 1,431 points as a result, firmly above the 1,400-point psychological barrier. Market liquidity reached USD 1.36 billion on HOSE, marking the highest-ever trading value in local currency terms, excluding exchange rate effects. Both buyers and sellers were highly active. Bulls are betting that the index could soon reach the 1,500-point target, while sellers were happy take profit after recent solid gains. Foreign investors net bought USD 74.9 million today, with a strong focus on VN30 constituents.