Daily Market Watch 08/10/2025: The EM Upgrade Finally Comes, Stock Prices React Mixed Though

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

o       At 3:00 a.m Vietnam time today, the FTSE Russell officially announced that Vietnam’s stock market had met all formal criteria to be upgraded from a Frontier Market to a Secondary Emerging Market. The upgrade will take effect on September 21 2026, following the next review in March 2026, contingent upon resolving remaining issues regarding global investors’ access to local brokers. FTSE emphasized that while the decision marks significant progress, Vietnam still needs to accelerate the implementation of the Central Counterparty (CCP) model to finalize the process. 

o       The market opened positively as retail investors were excited about the news and expect that it would trigger a rally in the near term. Strong retail inflows were seen in the first session and pushed the VN-Index above the 1,700-point threshold to approach its intraday ATH. However, stock prices quickly cooled down due to (1) liquidity remained uninspired for a break-out, (2) continued strong net selling by foreign investors despite of the EM upgrade announcement, and (3) muted reactions from stocks that directly benefit from the market upgrade. These catalysts triggered a ‘sell-on-news' reaction. Small/mid-cap stocks saw sharper declines as retail investors sold aggressively, particularly in the securities sector. Large caps also traded lower, including VIC (-1.50%), VHM (-1.36%), TCB (-1.03%), BID (-0.25%), HPG (-0.52%), and VPB (-0.32%). The VN-Index closed the morning session slightly below reference at 1,683.67 points (-0.01%). 

o       The Index improved gradually in the afternoon as profit taking faded. Investors sentiment improved postivively thanks to solid Q3 2025 earnings estimations and the turnaround of foreign flows and stock prices inched up steadily toward the end of the day. Foreign flows turned to be very strong in the afternoon and drove many blue-chip up notably, in cluding VHM (+4.27%), VRE (+3.71%), MWG (+3.59%), VNM (+3.26%), and CTG (+2.52%). Some large funds must have reacted to the EM upgrade news. The VN-Index closed at 1,697.83 points (+0.74%) as a result. Although it failed to surpass the 1,700 resistance, the momentum in the afternoon and decent foreign flows are quite encouraging. Market breadth improved significantly to 181 gainers vs. 121 decliners (from 123/166 in the morning). 

o        Corporate earnings for Q3 are expected to post strong growth, with early results showing robust improvements. In the brokerage sector, VPS estimated Q3 net profit at VND 1,000 bn (+65% YoY). Several other securities firms also projected Q3 profit growth of 25–30% YoY.DCM reported PBT of VND 344 bn (~3x YoY). DIG announced 9M25 PBT of VND 210 bn (~5x YoY). DBC recorded 9M25 net profit of VND 1,300 bn (~2.5x YoY).

o       Market liquidity improved from the previous session. Total trading value reached USD 1.28 bn (+32.1% DoD). However, the increase in liquidity was mainly observed in the morning session, as profit taking drove higher trading activity on the sell side. In the afternoon, HoSE trading value slightly declined by 1.4% compared to the morning session.  

o       Foreign investors turned to be net buyers (+USD 9 mn) after 21 consecutive net selling sessions. Foreign flows was still negative in the morning (-USD 33.6 mn), but inflows surged significantly in the afternoon and helped improve sentiment well. Buying activity was concentrated in GEX (+USD 10.1 mn), MWG (+USD 10.0 mn), and HPG (+USD 6.9 mn), while key net sold tickers included SHB (-USD 5.8 mn), VRE (-USD 5.8 mn), and MSN (-USD 5.1 mn).