Daily Market Watch 07/08/2025: Local Retail Flows Drove the Index Ahead Amid Intraday Volatilities

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

o       The market opened in a bullish sentiment as the U.S government threatened a 50% tariff on Indian exports. This would help widen the tariff gap with Vietnamese goods and indicate more favourable conditions for us. Stock prices rose in the early morning session. However, selling pressures quickly surged and pushed many stocks down slightly towards the end of the morning, including a number of key large-cap stocks such as VIC, VHM, VJC, VCB, etc. Many concerned that the huge amount of bottom fishing volumesbought 2 days agowould be available to sell in the afternoon session and weigh on stock prices.

o       There were indeed some volatilities in the afternoon as speculators locked in profit and sell quickly. However, selling volumes were not that aggressive. On the other hand, buying was resilient and ready to consume overhang in most stocks. Several blue chip stocks delivered a stellar performance such as VPB, TPB, HPG, and BID.While mid-cap also advanced nicely across the board. Investors were a lot more confident and eager to buy in. The Index moved up well towards the end of the trading hour and closed at 1,581pts (+0.51%).

o       The small-cap basket outperformed today with 1.3% gain, followed by mid-cap group (+1.1%). Large-cap added 0.7% and lagged behind due to the adjustment of VIC, VHM. We saw further rotation of flows and interests to small-mid cap stocks by retail investors. High-beta stocks in exports, construction materials, infrastructure investment, fertilizer, property went up nicely and the gains were seen in the broader market. This is a typical behaviour when local retail flows are strong. Meanwhile, there were always some large-cap stocks performed well to maintain a positivethe momentum in this group.Rotation in performance are going on in both large-cap and small/mid-cap universes.

o       Market liquidity remained robust. Total trading value reached USD 1.67 billion (+11.7% DoD). Foreign investors net sold slightlyof USD -3.8 mn on HOSE. Both buying and selling activities of foreign players were more active these days. Notable outflows were seen in FPT (-USD 14.2 mn) and GEX (-USD 6.1 mn), while strong inflows targeted VPB (+USD 17.1 mn) and HPG (+USD 14.9 mn).Foreign flows have been negative from late July and retail flows are what mainly drive the market for the time being.

o       The Prime Minister instructed to maintain 2025 GDP target at 8.3– 8.5% and directed the SBV to adjust credit growth and prepare monetary policies for late 2025 and 2026 to support economic growth. This somehow sent a bullish sentiment to the market in general and the banking sector in particular. Investors could be confident that credit growth would be solid ahead. On the cautious side, the Vietnam Dong continued to weaken compared to the US Dollar and the over night interbank interest rate surged to 6.6% from 5.3% yesterday. This may raise some concerns among investors in the near term.