Daily Market Watch 06/10/2025: The Equity Market Advanced Firmly on EM Upgrade Expectation

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

o       The VN-Index moved up sharply right in the opening session. Sentiment of retail investors was vastly improved thanks to multiple positive factors: (1) upbeat speculations regarding the EM upgrade. Some large brokers circulated that FTSE has decided to upgrade Vietnam market status to EM over the weekend. This raised a huge excitement in the market after a lack-of-news period; (2) Solid Q3 2025 macro data with GDP rising 8.22% YoY (exceeding the government target), bringing 9M 2025 GDP growth to 7.84% YoY (more macro update below); (3) a strong rebound across Asian markets; and (4) a technical recovery as most stocks had declined steeply over the past few weeks.

o       The VN-Index moved up sharply right in the opening session. Sentiment of retail investors was vastly improved thanks to multiple positive factors: (1) upbeat speculations regarding the EM upgrade. Some large brokers circulated that FTSE has decided to upgrade Vietnam market status to EM over the weekend. This raised a huge excitement in the market after a lack-of-news period; (2) Solid Q3 2025 macro data with GDP rising 8.22% YoY (exceeding the government target), bringing 9M 2025 GDP growth to 7.84% YoY (more macro update below); (3) a strong rebound across Asian markets; and (4) a technical recovery as most stocks had declined steeply over the past few weeks.

o       Investors were more confident in the afternoon as the market momentum was very firm. Stock prices were up solidly across the board and triggered retail investors to engage new positions. Many investors who have been waiting in the sideline returned to buy. Such additional flows helped the Index to increase significantly toward the end of the session and close at its intraday high at 1,695pts (+3%). This is just a tad below its all-time-high level.

o       Market breadth was extremely positive with 259 gainers versus 68 decliners in HOSE. Stocks in the broad market jumped well. The large-cap VN30 Index hiked 3.2% with 29/30 stocks advanced. LPB (-1.33%) is the only stock that declined. The stock increased sharply last week and had a pause today. The mid-cap basket (+3.9%) increased sharply as retail investors resumed and chased to buy. Many stocks surged to limit up price with a huge buying overhang. 

o       Total trading turnover reached USD 1.24 bn, up 32.23% from the previous session. Liquidity improved as retail investors were a lot more active. Trading value increased strongly in the afternoon as retail investores were more confident that the consolidation phase has completed and the Index shall move to the next leg of rally.

o       Foreign investors remained strong net sellers at USD -71.4 mn, focusing on MWG (-12 mn), MBB (-10.7 mn), FPT (-10.2 mn), STB (-8.2 mn), and VRE (-7.6 mn). On the buy side, inflows concentrated in HPG (+5.6 mn), VIX (+5.6 mn), and ACB (+1.8 mn). Apparently, sellers did not care much about the EM upgrade. If upgraded, new foreign flows are expected to appear from March 2026.