Daily Market Watch 05/10/2026: Stock Prices Recovered Thanks To The Solid Q3 GDP Growth Update And Vingroup’s Rebound

TODAY MARKET MOVEMENT

o    The market opened the week positively due to several supportive macro numbers released during the weekend and VNIndex closed at +0.9%, including: (1) GDP 3Q26 growth at 9.95% YoY and expected to rise 12.5% through fully disbursing the public investment budget, (2) solid FDI and an improvement in the trade balance, with the trade deficit narrowing further in September, (3) ON interbank rate eased to 2.05% after surging in the previous week, and (4) expected decent 3Q26 earnings in selected names. Many stocks have declined to attractive price levels following last week's sharp sell-off. As a result, we see substantial bottom-fishing demand emerging.

o    The Large-cap Index rose 1.0% thanks to strong gains in Vingroup family and large private banks. LPB closed at the ceiling price thanks to decent foreign demand. The Mid-cap Index declined 0.2% on subdued liquidity while the Small-cap Index edged up 0.04%. Market breadth remains positive at 162 gainers versus 155 decliners.

o    Trading activity remained muted. Total trading value on HOSE declined 29.6% from the previous session and reached USD512.8mn. Foreign investors recorded a net outflow of USD10.7mn, extending their net selling streak to 9 consecutive sessions. HPG recorded the largest net purchase at +USD2.5mn. DGW followed at +USD2.2mn after delivering solid 9M26 earnings result while GMD attracted +USD1.4mn. TCB led net sales at -USD5.6mn. VHM followed at -USD4.4mn while PNJ (-6.07%) recorded -USD3.5mn and retreated sharply as a result.

Major Updates and Developments

o    Financials gain 0.4% as interbank rates ease. The overnight interbank rate declined from 4.05 to 2.05% today. Raising the banks' loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) from 85% to 95% would create additional room for credit growth. This could support commercial banks’ NIMs and support positive sentiment towards the sector. Private banks saw major gains with LPB (+7.0%), BVB (+2.4%), SSB (+2.4%).

o    Real Estate rose 2.3% as Vingroup stocks drive sector gains. Vingroup-related stocks, with VIC (+3.6%), VHM (+0.59%) and VRE (+0.85%) posted modest gains on strong local buying. HoREA proposed allowing foreign individuals to purchase or lease-purchase additional property types, including condotels, officetels, and serviced apartments, with foreign ownership capped at 30%. However, the broader names in the group retreated sharply on strong foreign and retail selling including HDC (-2.42%), DXS (-1.64%) and NLG (-0.91%)

o    Materials sector edged up by 1.5%, led by steel stocks amid positive 3Q26 earnings expectations. HPG (+2.24%) recovered after falling below key price level last week thanks to aggressive foreign accumulation. NKG (+3.48%) and HSG (+0.20%) also advanced on overseas buying.

o    Industrials sector edged up 0.3%, largely supported by the Gelex group. GEE (+4.09%) and GEX (+1.31%) both rebounded well on solid local flows following two consecutive sessions of sharp declines.

o    A few brokerages rebounded slightly after MoF issued new circular regarding clearing and settlement model. The Ministry of Finance issued Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC on September 30, effective November 16, 2026, establishing a comprehensive CCP clearing and settlement model. The new framework is expected to strengthen Vietnam’s market infrastructure and support the development of the securities market, benefiting securities companies and reinforcing expectations of an MSCI upgrade.LPS (LPS, +1.69%)/ VIX (VIX, +0.42%)/ VNDirect (VND, +0.38%) led the rally.

o    Digiworld (+6.28%) jumped strongly following a solid 9M26 earnings result. Its revenue surged by 42% YoY and reached around 84% of its full-year target. The stock was also ranked top 2 foreign net-bought stocks (+USD2.2mn).

o    Vietnam – State budget posts VND313.6tn (USD12.1bn) surplus in 9M26: State budget revenue reached nearly VND2.19 quadrillion (USD84.2bn) in 9M26, up 12.1% YoY, while expenditure increased 14.5% to VND1.87 quadrillion (USD72.1bn).

o    Vietnam – Credit growth reaches 11.59% YTD: Total outstanding loans at Vietnam’s credit institutions reached approximately VND20.75 quadrillion as of September 30, representing 16.69% YoY growth.