Daily Market Watch 03/10/2025: Panic Intensified Prior to The FTSE Upgrade Announcement

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

o       The market traded negatively in the morning as investors were quite conservative due to (1) low trading activities in the broad market, resulted in a poor liquidity; (2) foreign investors continued selling aggressively; (3) uncertainty prior to the FTSE Upgrade announcement date (next Tuesday); (4) higher losses due to the fall of stock prices in the last several days. As the rebound momentum faded in yesterday session, most investors returned to be cautious. VIC maintained to be the key Index mover, but most other stocks fell more sharply. The Index fell 0.6% in the morning, yet many high beta stocks plunged by over 3% due to panic sell of retail investors. 

o       In the afternoon, strong bottom-fishing emerged on rumors that the FTSE Russell Index Governance Board meeting regarding market reclassification shall be going on today and the results could be favourable for Vietnam, coupled with HSBC’s view that Vietnam has a high probability of being upgraded on October 8. Buying interest concentrated in VN30 blue-chips as a result and pushed the Index up to the water level. Many stocks rebounded significantly from their intraday low, including VIC (up 2.92% from its intraday low,) VRE (+7.03%), and VHM (+4.12%). However, selling pressure resurfaced after 2 p.m, sending VN-Index down by -0.42% at close. 

o       In September, Vietnam’s manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 50.4, ranking behind Singapore (56.4), Thailand (54.6), and Myanmar (53.1) in ASEAN. According to S&P Global, business conditions in Vietnam’s manufacturing sector continued to improve slightly as new orders picked up. The market did not really react to this news though.  

o       Market liquidity rose slightly compared to yesterday. Trading value increased to USD 938.7 mn (+7.58% DoD), mainly due to stronger panic selling pressures as we observed. Retail investors started to be more panic as their losses have been significant. Many stocks have dropped by 15%-20% (or even higher). Thus, a number of investors may margin call risks ahead. They are rather vulnerable to any risk appearing in this window.  

o       Foreign investors continued selling heavily with a net sell value of -USD 46.8 mn in HOSE, bringing their week-to-date net outflows to -USD 276 mn. Today, they focused on selling MWG (-USD 10.1 mn), STB (-USD 7.2 mn), and CTG (-USD4.8m), while net buying was seen in VIC (+USD 9.4 mn), HPG (+USD 1.4 mn), and ANV (+USD 1.4 mn).