Daily Market Watch 01/10/2026: Vingroup Family Corrected and Weighed on Market Sentiment

Today Market Movement

o    The market traded slightly lower from the open before weakening sharply towards the close as Vingroup stocks and large private banks weighed on sentiment, sending the VN-Index down 1.1% DoD. The Large Cap Index fell 0.9% while the Mid Cap and Small Cap indices both shed 0.4% amid subdued liquidity. Among this pool, GELEX stocks corrected sharply after several strong sessions, followed by property and brokerage names as investors lowered expectations for 3Q26 earnings amid an unfavorable market backdrop.Market breadth was negative at 177 decliners versus 110 gainers.

o    Liquidity was subdued despite a sizeable negotiated transaction in MSR worth +USD125mn which lifted UPCOM turnover and ranked as the second-largest foreign purchase YTD. MSR hiked 5.4% as a result, the stock has rallied nearly 85% over the past two months. Total trading value on HOSE was broadly unchanged at USD590mn as investors remained cautious in the absence of positive catalysts. Foreign investors were heavy net sellers early in the session before late-session purchases narrowed the net outflow to -USD2.4mn. SBT attracted +USD6.2mn followed by VHM (+USD2.4mn) and HDB (+USD2.3mn). Foreign outflows were concentrated in TCB (-USD3.3mn), MSB (-USD2.8mn) and VNM (-USD1.8mn).

Major Updates and Developments

o    Real estate fell 2.2% as Vingroup stocks weighed on the group. VIC (-3.47%), VRE (-0.82%) and VHM (-0.15%) faced sizeable domestic selling. The broader group traded within a narrow range amid concerns over developers’ liquidity constraints. NVL bucked the trend with a 1.96% gain after falling 20% over the past two weeks.

o    Financials slipped 0.9% as a sharp rise in interbank rates weighed on private banks. The overnight VND interbank rate jumped from 0.2% p.a. to 7% p.a. on September 30 which ended its declining trend since September 21. LPB (-4.55%), SSB (-2.74%) and EIB (-2.64%) led the decline. Brokerage stocks also saw continued retail-driven selling amid expectations for weaker 3Q26 earnings due to subdued liquidity with VPX (-1.36%), VIX (-1.22%) and VND (-1.08%) among the weakest names.

o    HDB (+1.82%) set October 12 as the record date for its 30% stock dividend and bonus share issuance. HDBank will issue a 25% stock dividend from undistributed profits and 5% bonus shares from its capital reserve. Upon completion, charter capital is expected to rise from VND50,053bn (~USD1.93bn) to more than VND65,069bn (~USD2.51bn).

o    STB fell 5.0% after approving a plan to issue VND15tn (~USD577mn) of public bonds in 2026. The bonds will carry seven-year and 10-year maturities and be issued in three tranches from 4Q26 through 3Q–4Q27. The announcement raised concerns over longer-term funding costs amid the current high-rate environment.

o    Vietnam - The SBV raised the LDR ceiling to 95% under Circular 50 which will take effect on December 1, 2026. The new framework also introduces the Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Net Stable Funding Ratio. LCR will rise from 50% in October 2028 to 100% in October 2033 while NSFR will increase from 90% in October 2028 to 100% in October 2030.

o    MSR attracted USD125mn of foreign purchases through a negotiated transaction as the stock has rallied nearly 85% over the past two months. On October 1, MSR announced that Elmet Group had completed its acquisition of a 4.99% stake. MSR also plans a second 2026 cash dividend of VND5,000/share worth around VND5.5tn (~USD212mn) following its VND1,000/share payment in September. Elmet plans to expand its tungsten supply chain including the revival of the Springer complex in Nevada. Mitsubishi Materials also plans to invest around JPY8bn (~USD54mn) to nearly double recycled tungsten APT capacity at its Akita plant. These investments reflect broader efforts to diversify tungsten supply chains beyond concentrated sources while MSR has developed similar processing capabilities in Vietnam.

o    PLX (+2.95%) and OIL (0.00%) jumped strongly on several supportive developments before giving back part of their early gains, including: (1) the Government extended fuel tax incentives from October 1 to December 31, 2026 under Resolution 43, (2) a Ministry of Industry and Trade proposal would allow fuel companies to set selling prices within their own networks based on regulated formulas and principles and (3) Russia extended its diesel export ban through October which could further tighten global diesel supply ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

o     Vietnam – HOSE to start trading stocks transferred from HNX on December 28: Vietnam Exchange (VNX) announced that stocks currently listed on HNX will be transferred to HOSE under the market restructuring plan. December 23, 2026 will be the last trading day on HNX. Trading on HOSE is scheduled to start on December 28, 2026.

o    Vietnam – HOSE proposes Prime and Standard Boards for listed stocks: HOSE plans to classify listed stocks into two boards: Prime Board and Standard Board. To qualify for the Prime Board, a stock must meet all four criteria: 

-            paid-in charter capital of at least VND1.0tn (~USD38.5mn);

-            foreign ownership limit (FOL) of at least 50%, or if FOL is below 50%, charter capital adjusted for the FOL must be at least VND500bn (~USD19.2mn);

-            free float of at least 50%, or if free float is below 50%, charter capital adjusted for free float must be at least VND500bn (~USD19.2mn);

-            the stock must not be under warning, control, trading restriction, trading suspension or trading halt measures. 

Any stock failing one of the four criteria will be placed on the Standard Board. The initial classification is expected to be announced on December 28, 2026.