Vincom Retail (HOSE: VRE) | Q4 2025 Update, ADD - 1Y Upside +12.0%

DIVESTMENT OF VINCOM CENTER NGUYEN CHI THANH BOLSTERS FULL-YEAR EARNINGS

VRE delivered a robust Q4 2025 with revenue reaching VND 2,312.3bn (+8.7% YoY) and NPAT-MI surging to VND 2,658.8bn (+145% YoY). This top-line growth was fueled by the launch of three new shopping malls (VMM Ocean City, VMM Royal Island, and Vincom Plaza Vinh), while the bottom-line spike was primarily driven by a VND 1,891bn one-off gain from the Vincom Center Nguyen Chi Thanh divestment.

For the full year 2025, net revenue stood at VND 8,837.4bn (-1.1% YoY), while NPAT-MI reached VND 6,445.9bn (+57.4% YoY). Despite the slight revenue dip due to the absence of property handovers, NPAT-MI achieved 137.1% of annual guidance. This outperformance was underpinned by income from the divestment at Vincom Center Nguyen Chi Thanh and disciplined cost management, which saw selling and general administrative expenses fall by over 20.5% YoY and 11.5% YoY, respectively.

Looking ahead to 2026, VRE targets double-digit growth by launching the Vincom Plaza Wonder City and launching new product line. Our core operational assumptions remain unchanged, maintaining Cap rates between 6.0% and 9.0% and stable occupancy targets of 90-97% for prime CBD locations.

We have revised our 12-month Target Price upward to VND 34,600/share, a 1.8% increase from our previous target, reflecting the accretion in book value following the Nguyen Chi Thanh divestment. Besides, our core modeling assumptions remain unchanged. However, following a significant rally in the share price since our last report, the current market price of VND 30,900/share (as of January 27, 2026) offers a moderate upside potential of 12.0%. Consequently, we are downgrading our recommendation from BUY to ADD, as we believe the recent price action has priced in a substantial portion of the near-term catalysts.

FY 2025 Performance Overview

o        Net Revenue: VND 8,837.4bn (-1.1% YoY, reaching 92.8% of VRE’s guidance and beating our 2025 forecast by 8.9%).

o        Profit Before Tax: VND 8,083.2bn (+57.5% YoY).

o        NPAT-MI: VND 6,445.9bn (+57.4% YoY, reaching 137.1% of VRE’s guidance and equivalent to 160.9% of our 2025 forecast).