VPBank (HOSE: VPB) | Q4 2025 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +36.7%

Exceptionally Strong Performance, Exceeding All Key Targets

In Q4 2025, VPB delivered a record pre-tax profit (PBT) of VND 10,229bn, up 66.3% YoY, marking its strongest quarterly performance in the past four years. For FY2025, PBT reached VND 27,856bn, exceeding both our prior forecast and management’s revised target by 10%, underscoring stronger-than-expected earnings momentum.

As of end-2025, VPB’s consolidated customer loans reached approximately VND 944tn, representing a robust 35.3% YTD increase, broadly in line with our latest forecast of +34.0% YTD. The corporate banking segment remained the primary growth engine, continuing to anchor the bank’s credit expansion.

VPB’s ecosystem was further reinforced in 2025 through the addition of GPBank, the IPO and listing of VPX, and a robust expansion pipeline. Management noted that the group is well positioned to accelerate into its next transformation phase over 2026–2030, supported by solid foundations in capital, liquidity, technology, and corporate governance.

We have revised our 2026 financial projections, with NPAT-MI for 2026 now estimated at VND 27,303bn, representing an 8.8% upward revision from our previous forecast. This revision is underpinned by updated assumptions, including higher lending and deposit rates, a positive outlook for non-interest income, particularly insurance-related income, and reduced provisioning pressure amid improving asset quality.

Accordingly, we raised our 12M Target Price for VPB to VND 39,900/share, representing a 5.6% increase from our previous target. Based on the closing price of VND 29,200 as of January 22, 2026, the stock offers an upside potential of 36.7%. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on VPB.

FY2025 Performance Overview

o       Net-interest income (NII): VND 58,663bn (+17.3% YoY, ~104.1% of our previous FY2025 forecast)

o       Total operating income (TOI): VND 74,654bn (+19.9% YoY,  ~103.6% of our  FY2025 forecast)

o       PBT: VND 30,625bn (+53.0% YoY,   ~109.9% of our FY2025 forecast, ~110.5% of the consolidated bank’s revised target)

o       NPAT-MI: VND 23,990bn (+52.0% YoY, ~109.4% of FY2025 forecast)

In 2025, VPB demonstrated strong alignment between scale expansion and operating efficiency. Consolidated TOI reached nearly VND 74,654bn, up 19.9% YoY, positioning the bank among the top performers within the private banking segment.

Meanwhile, provisioning expenses declined 9.0% YoY to VND 25,399bn. As a result, consolidated PBT surged to a record VND 30,625bn, representing a robust 53.0% YoY increase and exceeding the revised target by 11% (~121% of the AGM plan). Notably, Q4 2025 marked a peak earnings quarter, with PBT surpassing VND 10,229bn, the highest quarterly result recorded over the past four years.