VNDIRECT Securities (HOSE: VND) | Q4 2025 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +26.8%

Earnings Remained Broadly In Line With Expectations Amid Market Share Pressures

In Q4 2025, Vietnam’s equity market maintained relatively healthy trading activity, with average daily trading value (ADTV) across HoSE, HNX and UPCoM at approximately VND 29tn. While this marked a meaningful correction from the elevated Q3 2025 peak of VND 42tn, market liquidity remained structurally higher, up 46.7% versus H1 2025 and 39.3% compared with FY2024. Consequently, FY2025 ADTV averaged VND 27.6tn per day, representing a solid 32.3% YoY increase.

Against this backdrop, VND’s operating results in Q4 2025 showed a YoY improvement from a low base, but remained significantly weaker compared with the exceptionally strong Q3 2025. Q4 2025 revenue and net profit (NPAT) reached VND 1,427bn (+17.7% YoY) and VND 342bn (+36.1% YoY), respectively.

On a QoQ basis, NPAT fell sharply by 63.2% from a high base, undershooting our prior estimate of VND 512bn by 33.2%. The weaker-than-expected result was mainly attributable to a steep decline in proprietary trading income and brokerage profit, amid softer market conditions and continued market share erosion. Brokerage market share slipped to 4.62% in Q4 2025 from 5.42% in Q3 2025, as several peers adopted more aggressive client acquisition and pricing strategies to gain market share in preparation for their IPO. For FY2025, VND recorded revenue of VND 6,640bn (+24.7% YoY) and NPAT of VND 2,022bn (+17.7% YoY), achieving 97% and 92% of our previous forecasts, respectively.

We maintain our prudent forecasts for FY2026 with  projected revenue of VND 7,363bn (+10.9% YoY) and NPAT of VND 2,481bn (+22.7% YoY).

Based on the above, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on VND, with a 12-month target price of VND 23,650/share, implying a potential upside of 26.8% from the closing price of VND 18,650/share as of January 27, 2026.

FY2025 Performance Overview

o       Revenue: VND 6,640bn (+24.7% YoY, ~96.6% our FY2025 forecast)

o       PBT: VND 2,508bn (+20.1% YoY, ~90.5% of our FY2025 forecast, ~109% of company plan)

o       NPAT: VND 2,022bn (+17.7% YoY, ~92.2% of our FY2025 forecast)

For FY2025, VND posted revenue of VND 6,640bn (+24.7% YoY), completing 96.6% of our full-year forecast. Pre-tax profit (PBT) reached VND 2,508bn (+20.1% YoY), while NPAT amounted to VND 2,022bn (+17.7% YoY), significantly exceeding the company’s conservative FY2025 AGM target of VND 1,840bn (only +7% YoY) by approximately 10%.