VIB (HOSE: VIB) | Q4 2025 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +24.2%

Solid Credit Expansion But Profit Moderate Due To Higher Costs Of Funding

In Q4 2025, VIB reported total operating income (TOI) of VND 5,282bn (+5.5% YoY, broadly flat QoQ), mainly supported by improved lending activities. As of end-2025, the bank’s total loan book reached VND 382tn (+17.9% YoY, +2.5% QoQ), in line with expectations. Net interest income (NII) remained the key contributor to TOI, benefiting from solid retail credit expansion, while non-interest income showed gradual recovery, particularly from fee and service activities. However, earnings were pressured by higher costs: operating expenses rose 12.5% YoY to VND 1,971bn, and credit provisions increased 11.5% YoY to VND 1,252bn, leading to Q4 pre-tax profit (PBT) of VND 2,058bn, down 14.3% YoY.

For FY2025, VIB recorded PBT of VND 9,105bn, up 1.1% YoY, equivalent to 82.6% of the bank’s full-year target and 97.8% of our forecast. Net profit after tax (NPAT) reached VND 7,285bn, also increasing 1.1% YoY.

We have revised our 2026 financial projections, with NPAT 2026 of VND 8,110bn, a 3.3% downward adjustment from our previous forecast. This revision reflects several updated assumptions: (i) a reduction in our 2026 credit growth forecast from 17.4% to 15.3% in line with slower sector credit growth target of 15% by SBV; (ii) an upward revision to interest rate assumptions, with the lending rate increasing from 8.8% to 9.0% and the deposit rate from 5.4% to 5.7%; and (iii) expected lower provisioning pressure, supported by a more effective acceleration of written-off loan recoveries.

Accordingly, we revise our 12-month target price for VIB to VND 21,050/share, representing a 10.4% reduction from our previous estimate. Based on the closing price of VND 16,950/share as of February 11, 2026, the stock implies an upside potential of 24.2%. We therefore reiterate our BUY recommendation on VIB.

FY2025 Performance Overview

o       Net-interest income (NII): VND 16,092bn (-3.9% YoY, ~100.4% of our previous FY2025 forecast)

o       Total operating income (TOI): VND 20,007bn (-2.7% YoY, ~99.5% of our  FY2025 forecast)

o       PBT: VND 9,105bn (+1.1% YoY, ~97.8% of our FY2025 forecast, ~82.6% of the bank’s target)

o       NPAT: VND 7,285bn (+1.1% YoY, ~97.8% of FY2025 forecast)

In 2025, VIB reported TOI of VND 20,007bn, down 2.7% YoY, mainly driven by a 3.9% YoY decline in NII to VND 16,092bn. Meanwhile, costs were effectively contained. Full-year operating expenses reached VND 7,435bn (+3.1% YoY), while provisioning expenses declined sharply to VND 3,467bn (-20.4% YoY). During the year, VIB reduced its workforce by 1,458 employees, bringing total headcount down to 10,278.

As a result, PBT increased 1.1% YoY to VND 9,105bn, equivalent to 82.6% of the bank’s full-year target. NPAT reached VND 7,285bn, up 1.1% YoY and broadly in line with our previous projections (complete 97.8%).