Vietcap Securities (HOSE: VCI) | Q4 2025 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +34.3%

Strong Q4 Earnings Despite Slower Market Activity; Full-Year Results Met Target

In Q4 2025, ADTV across HoSE, HNX and UPCoM moderated to VND 29tn from the Q3 peak of VND 42tn, while market liquidity remained structurally strong, up 46.7% versus H1 2025 and 39.3% compared to FY2024. For FY2025, ADTV averaged VND 27.6tn (+32.3% YoY), supported by improving macro fundamentals and FTSE’s announcement of a potential Vietnam market upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market in March 2026.

Against this backdrop, VCI delivered solid Q4 2025 results, driven by robust brokerage activities, continued margin lending expansion and active IB execution. Q4 revenue and NPAT reached VND 1,526bn (+52.8% YoY) and VND 443bn (+102.8% YoY), respectively. For FY2025, revenue and NPAT amounted to VND 4,980bn (+34.8% YoY) and VND 1,342bn (+47.4% YoY), achieving 118% of management’s FY2025 targets and approximately 101% of our previous forecasts.

We maintain our FY2026 projection for VCI with total revenue to reach VND 6,192bn (23.7% YoY), while NPAT is expected to rise to VND 1,809bn (+34.8% YoY), based on assumption of ADTV of 35tn in 2026, margin book assumption of 21,123bn and interest rate of 9.5%.

We have updated our equity base assumptions to reflect VCI’s recent capital increase from VND 7,226bn to VND 8,501bn through private placement at VND 31,000/share and ESOP issuance of VND 10,000/share.

Accordingly, our 12M Target Price is adjusted to VND 47,200/share, a 2.6% reduction from our previous target of VND 48,450/share. Based on the closing price of VND 35,150/share as of January 22, 2026, the stock offers an upside potential of 34.3%. We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on VCI, with an active trading strategy.

FY2025 Performance Overview

o       Revenue: VND 4,980bn (+34.8% YoY, ~101% our previous FY2025 forecast, ~115% management plan)

o       PBT: VND 1,629bn (+49.6% YoY, ~100%  our FY2025 forecast, ~115% management plan)

o       NPAT: VND 1,342bn (+47.4% YoY,  ~101%  our FY2025 forecast)

VCI delivered a strong earnings performance, broadly in line with our expectations. FY2025 revenue reached VND 4,980bn, up 34.8% YoY and equivalent to around 101% of our previous forecast, reflecting a solid recovery in core brokerage and related activities. Pre-tax profit (PBT) rose sharply to VND 1,629bn (+49.6% YoY), while NPAT climbed to VND 1,342bn, representing 47.4% YoY growth and approximately 101% of our FY2025 estimate.