Vietcombank (HOSE: VCB) | Q4 2025 Update, HOLD – 1Y Upside +4.2%

Flat Q4 Earnings Amid Normalized Credit Costs

In Q4 2025, VCB delivered record TOI of VND 19,171bn (+8.2% YoY), supported by strong NII growth of +16.8% YoY (+10.3% QoQ), despite weaker non-interest income (-11.6% QoQ). Pre-provision operating profit rose 10.0% YoY to VND 11,735bn. However, the normalization of credit costs with VND 848bn vs. a write-back in Q4 2024, kept PBT flat YoY and down 3.1% QoQ at VND 10,887bn, lagging peers such as BID (VND 14,230bn, +87.4% QoQ), CTG (VND 13,911bn, +31.1% QoQ), and MBB (VND 11,129bn, +53.5% QoQ). For FY2025, VCB recorded PBT of VND 44,020bn (+4.2% YoY), completing 100% of our previous forecast and 103% of the bank’s full-year target.

We maintain our FY2026 forecasts for VCB, with 2026 TOI reaching VND 85,094bn (+17.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI to increase to VND 40,679bn (+15.6% YoY). This outlook is underpinned by robust NII growth of +18.4% YoY, driven by solid credit expansion especially for mega projects amid a gradual uptrend in lending rates among the Big 4 state-owned banks.

For 2026, VCB targets total assets growth of at least 11% and customer deposits growth of at least 14%. Credit growth is guided by around 13%, with a focus on productive, priority sectors in line with Government and SBV directives. This is broadly consistent with our forecast of 14.0% credit growth in 2026, bringing total loans to customers to approximately VND 1,908tn.

Following an 18.1% share price increase since our previous update released on Nov 06, 2025, VCB is now approaching our 12M Target Price of VND 74,800/share. Based on the closing price of VND 71,800/share as of Feb 03, 2026, the stock offers an upside potential of 4.2%. Accordingly, we downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD. That said, amid near-term market selling pressure ahead of the Lunar New Year, trading investors may consider tactically trimming positions in VCB to lock in profits.

FY2025 Performance Overview

o       Net-interest income (NII): VND 58,674bn (+5.9% YoY, ~96.5% of our FY2025 forecast)

o       Total operating income (TOI): VND 72,358bn (+5.5% YoY,  ~96.5% of our  FY2025 forecast)

o       PBT: VND 44,020bn (+4.2% YoY,   ~100% of our FY2025 forecast, ~103% of the bank’s target)

o       NPAT-MI: VND 35,178bn (+4.0% YoY, ~99.3% of our FY2025 forecast)

In FY2025, VCB reported TOI of VND 72,358bn, up 5.5% YoY, completing 96.5% of our forecast. TOI growth was primarily driven by NII, which increased 5.9% YoY, supported by resilient loan growth and relatively stable margins. By contrast, non-NII expanded at a more moderate pace of 3.9% YoY.

On the profit front, earnings momentum lagged peers in Q4 2025, largely due to the recognition of VND 848bn in provisioning expenses, compared with a VND 32bn write-back recorded in the same period last year. Nevertheless, on a full-year basis, VCB continued to deliver sector-leading earnings, with FY2025 PBT reaching VND 44,020bn (+4.2% YoY), in line with our projections and equivalent to 103% of the bank’s full-year target.