Techcombank (HOSE: TCB) | Q4 2025 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +17.3%

Exceptionally Strong Non-NII, Driving Strong FY2025 Performance

TCB delivered strong earnings in Q4 2025, with pre-tax profit (PBT) reaching VND 9,153bn (+94.9% YoY, +10.9% QoQ), marking an all-time high. The robust performance was driven by an improvement in net interest income VND 10,788bn (+25.4% YoY, +8.7% QoQ), a recovery in fee-based income VND 2,571bn (+75.7% YoY, +13.5% QoQ), and effective cost control during the quarter.

For FY2025, PBT reached VND 32,538bn (+18.2% YoY), exceeding both our previous forecast and management’s target by 3%, with exceptionally strong non-NII of VND 15,236bn (+32.7% YoY). Given fierce competition in the market, diversification of income sources is key for future sustainable earnings growth.

During 2025, TCB further advanced its ecosystem strategy, highlighted by the successful IPO of Techcom Securities (HOSE: TCX) and the launch of Techcom Life, thereby strengthening its integrated product offerings across banking, wealth management, and insurance.

We maintain our FY2026 forecasts, projecting TOI of VND 61,425bn (+15.0% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 28,547bn (+12.9% YoY), as FY2025 results were broadly in line with our expectations.

In 2026, TCB expects credit growth of around 20%, broadly in line with our FY2026 forecast of 19.0%, which should continue to support interest income growth. In our view, improving lending yields, driven by rising lending rates at Big 4 SOCBs, together with ongoing cost-of-fund (COF) control measures, should keep NIM in 2026 stable at around 3.9%.

Based on the above, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on TCB, with a 12-month target price of VND 42,100/share, implying a potential upside of 17.3% from the closing price of VND 35,900/share as of January 30, 2026.

FY2025 Performance Overview

o       Net-interest income (NII): VND 38,155bn (+7.5% YoY, ~97.8% of our FY2025 forecast)

o       Total operating income (TOI): VND 53,391bn (+13.6% YoY,  ~101.7% of our  FY2025 forecast)

o       PBT: VND 32,538bn (+18.2% YoY, ~103.2% of our FY2025 forecast, ~103.3% of the bank’s target)

o        NPAT-MI: VND 25,290bn (+17.5% YoY, ~103% of FY2025 forecast)

In FY2025, TCB delivered strong results that exceeded expectations, with TOI reaching VND 53.4–53.5tn, up 13.6% YoY and equivalent to 101.7% of our forecast. Consolidated PBT reached VND 32.5tn, up 18.2% YoY and modestly exceeding both the bank’s target and our forecast, while NPAT-MI came in at VND 25,290bn, up 17.5% YoY and around 103% of our estimate. Notably, Q4 2025 recorded a record-high PBT of VND 9,153tn, surging 94.9% YoY and marking the third consecutive quarter of profit highs, supported by a sharp rebound in non-NII and a low base in the same period last year.