SSI Securities (HOSE: SSI) | Q4 2025 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +20.7%

Strong Earnings Driven By Increased Market Share

In Q4 2025, average daily trading value (ADTV) across HoSE, HNX, and UPCoM declined to VND 29tn, down from the Q3 2025 peak of VND 42tn, reflecting seasonal moderation and profit-taking following an exceptionally active quarter. Nevertheless, liquidity remained structurally elevated, increasing 46.7% versus H1 2025 and 39.3% compared with FY2024, underscoring a sustained improvement in market depth and investor participation. For FY2025, ADTV averaged VND 27.6tn/day, up 32.3% YoY, marking one of the strongest liquidity years in Vietnam’s equity market history.

Against this backdrop, SSI delivered a solid operating performance in Q4 2025, with revenue reaching VND 3,602bn (+62.1% YoY, –13.8% QoQ) and NPAT-MI of VND 817bn (+91.1% YoY, –44.6% QoQ). Earnings momentum moderated sequentially in Q4 2025 due to: (i) brokerage income coming in below expectations and (ii) a sharper-than-expected increase in financial expenses. For FY2025, SSI recorded revenue of VND 12,931bn (+51.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 4,106bn (+44.8% YoY), achieving 98% of our revenue forecast and 91% of our NPAT-MI forecast.

Notably, SSI continued to affirm its leading position, with HOSE market share rising from 11.02% in Q3 2025 to 12.5% in Q4 2025. Full-year market share averaged 11.53%, the highest level in the past five years.

We have revised our 2026 financial projections to revenue of VND 15,214bn (+17.7% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 4,850bn (+18.1% YoY), a decline of 8.8% from our prior estimate. This revision is underpinned by several updated assumptions: (i) the recent capital increase and (ii) rising cost-of-funds pressure. Our projections are based on an assumed 2026 ADTV of VND 36tn, a margin loan book of VND 56tn, and an average lending rate of 9.7%.

Accordingly, our 12M Target Price is adjusted to VND 36,150/share. Based on the closing price of VND 29,950/share as of February 10, 2026, the stock offers an upside potential of 20.7%. Therefore, we maintain our BUY recommendation on SSI.