VPBank (HOSE: VPB) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +18.4%

Earnings Surpass Expectations, Driven By Robust Credit Growth

In Q3 2025, VPB reported a record high pre-tax profit (PBT) of VND 9,166bn, up 76.7% YoY, marking the highest quarterly profit in the past 15 quarters. For 9M2025, PBT reached VND 20,396bn, meeting 84.3% of our previous FY2025 forecast and 80.7% of management’s full-year target, reinforcing confidence in the bank’s ability to pass its 2025 profit goal. NIM showed early signs of recovery, with the trailing 12-month NIM improved slightly to 5.3% in Q3 2025, from 5.2% in Q2 2025.

We revise up our 12-month target price for VPB to VND 37,800/share, representing a 32.8% increase from our previous target of VND 28,500/share. Given the closing price of VND 31,950/share on October 17, 2025, and an upside potential of 18.4%, we maintain our BUY recommendation on VPB.

We revised our 2025 financial projection with NPAT-MI 2025 at VND 21,923bn, up 14.7% from previous forecast, on the back of revision of a few assumptions (i) our 2025 credit growth forecast from 29.1% to 39.1%, (ii) lower provisioning pressure due to improved asset quality.

In addition, we apply a higher valuation for VPBankS (from USD 1.4bn to USD 2.4bn) and revise consolidated P/B multiple from 1.3x to 1.7x for VPB.