Vinh Hoan Corporation (HOSE: VHC) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +23.9%

Profit Surged As Product Diversification And Financial Income Drive Growth Despite Export Challenges

In Q3 2025, VHC delivered a solid earnings growth despite modest topline growth. Q3 revenue arrived at VND 3,471bn (+5.9% YoY), reversing the contraction of the previous two quarters, while NPAT reached VND 455bn (+33.5% YoY). Revenue growth was primarily supported by stronger sales of by-products and collagen & gelatin (C&G), which offset the 7.9% YoY decline in pangasius revenue to VND 1,761bn amid weaker exports to the U.S. and China.

For 9M2025, VHC recorded revenue of VND 9,311bn (–0.2% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,206bn (+38.6% YoY) a significant improvement in profitability thanks to (i) improvement in gross margin, (ii) lower selling expenses, and (iii) higher net financial income.

For FY2025, we revise our forecasts for VHC to reflect the strong profit outperformance in 9M2025. Revenue is now projected at VND 12,473bn (–0.3% YoY), slightly above management’s good-case target, supported by a favorable USD/VND exchange rate and expected seasonal demand recovery in Q4. NPAT is raised to VND 1,521bn (+16.8% YoY), surpassing management guidance.

For FY2026, revenue and NPAT are projected at VND 13,892bn (+11.4% YoY)  and VND 1,609bn (+5.8% YoY) respectively, driven by improved margin expectations, continued cost control, and sustained financial income from a strong cash and deposit base.

Accordingly, we revise our 12-month target price for VHC to VND 73,000/share, from our previous target of VND 66,000/share. Based on the closing price of VND 58,900/share on October 31, 2025, implying an upside potential of 23.9%, we revise our recommendation from ADD to a BUY rating on VHC. VHC also paid a cash dividend of VND 2,000 per share on 29/09/2025.