Vietcap Securities (HOSE: VCI) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +29.5%

Earnings Momentum Accelerated By Improved Market Liquidity

In Q3 2025, Vietnam’s equity market gained momentum, with average daily trading value (ADTV) across HoSE, HNX and UPCoM reaching VND 42.3tn, 2.1x higher than in H1 2025. The FTSE Russell announcement on October 8, 2025, upgrading Vietnam to Secondary Emerging Market status, marks a pivotal milestone and strengthened investor confidence.

Against this favorable market backdrop, VCI delivered a stronger-than-expected quarterly result, posting VND 1,443bn in revenue and VND 420bn in NPAT, up 1.5x and 2.0x YoY, respectively. For 9M2025, total revenue reached VND 3,454bn and NPAT VND 1,086bn, fulfilling 80.3% and 73.4% of our previous FY2025 forecasts. This robust performance underscores VCI’s operational efficiency and strong market positioning, reflecting clear benefits from the ongoing market recovery, its leading institutional brokerage franchise, and solid capital base.

We revise our assumptions to better reflect current market dynamics and VCI’s improving financial outlook. Key adjustments include higher estimates for ADTV, margin lending book, and IB revenue. Incorporating the revisions, we forecast 2025 revenue of VND 4,952bn (+30.4 YoY, +15.1% vs. prior estimate) and NPAT of VND 1,334bn (+46.5% YoY, +10.4% vs. prior estimate).

We also raise our valuation multiple for VCI, increasing the target P/B from 2.0x to 2.2x, and set a 12-month target price of VND 48,450/share, implying a 29.5% upside from the closing price of VND 37,400/share on October 24, 2025. Accordingly, we upgraded our recommendation from ADD to BUY.