Vinaconex (HOSE: VCG) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY– FW2026 Upside +20.1%

Robust Q3 Performance Driven By Cat Ba Amatina Divestment, Strengthening 9M2025 Results

For 9M2025, revenue reached VND 11,413bn (+40.2% YoY), fulfilling 74.5% of our FY2025 forecast. Construction and real estate accounted for over 80% of revenue, while water, energy, and education posted stable but moderate growth. NPAT-MI rose to VND 3,689bn (+475.6% YoY); excluding the one-off, core NPAT-MI was VND 632.7bn, achieving 64.5% of our full-year estimate.

The divestment materially improved VCG’s financial position. Inventories declined to VND 5,238bn (-26.5% YTD), long-term work in progress dropped to VND 1,284bn (-80.7% YTD), loan receivables increased to VND 6,264bn (+871.1% YTD), and long-term borrowings fell to VND 2,394bn (-44.4% YTD)—reflecting stronger liquidity and a more efficient balance sheet.

We updated our model to reflect the realized gain and rolled our valuation to 2026F. Revenue assumptions remain unchanged, while 2025F NPAT-MI was raised to VND 3,751bn (from VND 1,942bn). Our revised valuations stand at VND 37,936/share (DCF), VND 21,273/share (SOTP), and VND 34,263/share (P/B).

Our blended fair value is VND 28,700/share, offering +20.1% upside versus the closing price of VND 23,900 on November 13, 2025. We upgraded our recommendation from HOLD to BUY.