Vietcombank (HOSE: VCB) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +23.2%

Strong Balance Sheet; Solid Fundamentl Amid Margin Pressure

In Q3 2025, VCB delivered results broadly in line with expectations. Credit growth reached 12.4% YTD, while customer deposits expanded by a more modest 6.4% YTD. The trailing 12-month NIM continued to narrow to 2.57% in Q3 2025 (vs. 2.62% in Q2 2025 and 2.97% in Q3 2024), exerting pressure on earnings. Total operating income (TOI) reached VND 18,052bn (+7.2% YoY), driven by robust NII of VND 14,657bn (+8.0% YoY) and Non-NII of VND 3,395bn (+4.2% YoY). NPAT-MI came in at VND 9,020bn (+5.3% YoY).

Looking ahead, we expect earnings momentum to strengthen in Q4 2025, supported by rising credit demand and a gradual NIM recovery, as the bank continues expanding medium- and long-term lending. These loans accounted for 38.0% of total customer loans as of Q3 2025, up from 36.3% in Q2 2025 and 36.8% at end-2024.

As 9M2025 results came broadly in line with expectations, with NPAT-MI reaching 75.0% of our full-year forecast, we maintain our projections for VCB. We expect FY2025 TOI to reach VND 74,996bn (+9.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI to record VND 35,420bn (+4.7% YoY). For FY2026, our forecasts remain unchanged, with TOI projected at VND 85,094bn (+13.5% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 40,679bn (+14.8% YoY).

VCB’s share price has declined 3% over the past month and is now trading at 2.2x FY2025F P/B and 1.9x FY2026F P/B, well below its historical average of 2.6x. We maintain our BUY rating with a 12M Target Price of VND 74,800/share, implying a 23.2% upside from the closing price of VND 60,800 on November 5.

Consolidated Results

o    TOI: VND 53,185bn (+4.6% YoY)

o    PBT: VND 33,133bn (+5.1% YoY)

o    NPAT-MI: VND 26,565bn (+5.0% YoY)

In Q3 2025, VCB’s TOI rose 7.2% YoY to VND 18,052bn. CIR was maintained at 33.4% while credit provisions surged 138.2% YoY to VND 776bn, leading NPAT-MI to reach VND 9,020bn (+5.3% YoY).

Cumulative 9M2025, TOI increased 4.6% YoY to VND 53,185bn. Credit provisions dropped 48.3% YoY to VND 2,338bn, supported by a VND 1,000bn reversal from an interbank loan and the strategic use of excess LLR to manage provisioning. For comparison, the bank recorded a VND 4,700bn reversal in 9M2024. As a result, NPAT-MI rose 5.0% YoY to VND 26,565bn. CIR rose to 33.3% from 31.4% in 9M2024, broadly in line with our FY2025 forecast of 33.7%, as higher staff costs continued to weigh on expenses. Average staff cost climbed to VND 42 mn/employee (+10% YTD), ranking third in the sector after TPB and TCB. However, headcount fell 2% YTD, signaling ongoing cost optimization efforts.