Techcombank (HOSE: TCB) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +16.6%

Record-High Quarterly Earnings, Though NIM Remains Under Pressure From Higher Funding Costs

In Q3 2025, TCB reported its strongest quarterly performance on record with PBT of VND 8,250bn, up 14.4% YoY, supported by resilient TOI (+21.2% YoY), a strong CASA (38.4%), and stable asset quality (NPL 1.16%). For 9M2025, PBT rose to VND 23,385bn, up 2.4% YoY, meeting 74.5% of our previous forecast and 74.2% of management’s FY2025 plan.

We revise our 2025 forecasts as follows (i) NII raised by 0.9% to VND 38,901bn, reflecting a higher credit growth assumption of 21.2% (from 18.0%), and a slightly lower NIM forecast of 3.9% amid continued margin pressure in Q3 2025 and; (ii) Non-NII lifted by 9.0% to VND 13,509bn, supported by stronger-than-expected FX trading, investment gains, and other income, which already reached 123% of our prior estimate.

As a result, our revised total operating income (TOI) is flat at VND 52,410bn (+11.5% YoY), and 2025 NPAT-MI is slightly revised to VND 24,495bn (+13.8% YoY).

Accordingly, rolling our valuation and incorporating 2026 projections, we raise our 12M Target Price to VND 42,100/share, up 8.6% from our previous target price. Based on the closing price of VND 36,100/share on October 24, 2025, this implies an upside potential of 16.6%, and therefore revise our recommendation to a BUY rating on TCB.