PV Power (HOSE: POW) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +35.4%

Strong Earnings Growth; Nhon Trach 3 And Nhon Trach 4 Commencing Operations in 2026

POW delivered a solid performance in 9M2025, driven by strong generation output across its key power plants. Gas-fired units Nhon Trach 1 and 2 recorded robust Qc dispatch levels of 0.9 bn kWh (+527.3% YoY) and 2.5 bn kWh (+56.7% YoY) respectively, while Vung Ang 1 thermal power plant achieved output 4.8 bn kWh (+ 14.2% YoY) as NSMO ramped up output to meet surging power demand in the North. Meanwhile, the hydropower segment benefited from favorable hydrological conditions under the La Nina phase, ensuring abundant water flow and stable generation, achieving output 1.2 bn kWh (+42.0% YoY). As a result, POW reported consolidated revenue of VND 25.4 tn (+17.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1.9 tn (+74.2% YoY. 

For FY2025, we forecast POW’s consolidated revenue to reach VND 33.1tn (+7.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 2.2tn (+99.3% YoY), marking strong earnings rebound as power demand normalizes.

For FY2026, we project revenue to surge 59.8% YoY to VND 49.6tn, while NPAT-MI is expected to increase slightly 1.7% YoY to VND 2.3tn, as higher depreciation, interest expenses, and FX losses temporarily cap profit growth.

POW remains one of our preferred long-term picks, poised to benefit from the industry upcycle driven by Nhon Trach 3 and 4 as the Government’s plan to lift Qc dispatch levels above 75% for LNG power plants and the stabilization of Nam Con Son gas supply from Q4 2026 will enhance generation reliability and profitability. Meanwhile, Resolution 70 on power sector reform will streamline regulations and attract private investment, enabling POW to expand its portfolio and capture the next growth phase of Vietnam’s energy transition.

Accordingly, we revised our Forward 2026 target price for POW to VND 19,300/share. We maintain a BUY rating on POW with an upside of 35.4% from the closing price of VND 14,350/share as of October 31, 2025.