Phu Nhuan Jewelry (HOSE: PNJ) | Q3 2025 Update, HOLD – 1Y Upside +7.0%

Q3 2025 Earnings Recovered, Reinforcing Positive Outlook For Q4 2025 And 2026

PNJ delivered robust earnings in Q3 2025, despite seasonality effect. NPAT Q3 2025 reached VND 495bn (+230.0% YoY, +12.2% QoQ), supported by a resilient jewelry retail GPM of 29% (+5.2% YoY, -1.8% QoQ), a level usually achieved only during peak seasons. The improved margin was underpinned by PNJ’s strategic buyback of old jewelry, and subsequent resale at higher price levels in 2025.

In 9M2025, PNJ recorded revenue of VND 25,353bn (-13.3% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,610bn (+16.5% YoY), fulfilling 78.0% and 84.0% of our FY2025 forecasts, respectively.

We maintain our 2025 and 2026 forecast for PNJ, as its business performance remains broadly in line with our forecasts. We project 2025 revenue and NPAT-MI at VND 32,570bn (+14.0% YoY) and VND 1,924bn (+9.0% YoY), respectively, and 2026 revenue and NPAT-MI at VND 34,950bn (+7.3% YoY) and VND 2,166bn (+12.6% YoY).

Therefore, we maintain our 12M target price of VND 99,600/share, implying a potential upside of 7.0% from the closing price of VND 93,200/share at Oct 31, 2025. We revise our recommendation for PNJ from BUY to HOLD.