Hoa Phat Group (HOSE: HPG) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +34.5%

Exceptional Quarter Performance; Share Price Under Pressure

In Q3 2025, HPG delivered resilient results despite seasonal headwinds from the rainy season and the Lunar Ghost Month. Revenue reached VND 36,407bn (+7.2% YoY, +1.4% QoQ), while NPAT-MI came in at VND 3,988bn (+31.9% YoY, -6.3% QoQ). GPM stood at 16.7%, down from 18.4% in Q2 but well above 13.9% in Q3 2024, as input costs edged up slightly QoQ yet remained much lower YoY. Steel sales remained solid at 2.7 million tons (+24.8% YoY, -1.9% QoQ), supported by robust domestic demand and trade protection measures. Notably, HRC has overtaken construction steel to become HPG’s largest product category, marking a key milestone in its product mix transformation. With the full ramp-up of Dung Quat 2, HPG has officially surpassed Formosa to become Vietnam’s largest HRC producer.

HPG is well-positioned to benefit from Vietnam’s potential upgrade to Emerging Market status in September 2026, which could attract about USD 425mn in inflows for HPG. Near-term earnings remain strong, driven by accelerated public investment, peak construction activity in Q4, the full-quarter contribution of Dung Quat 2 Phase 2, and rising Chinese steel prices amid supply tightening and improved US–China trade sentiment

We maintain our BUY rating on HPG but revise our 12M target price to VND 35,900/share, as we roll forward our valuation to end 2026 and adjust for lower input costs amid robust supply. This implies an upside potential of 34.5% from closing price of VND 26,700/share as of October 31, 2025.