Dabaco Vietnam (HOSE: DBC) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – 2026 Upside +26.7%

Short-Term Headwinds, But Long-Term Prospects Remain Solid On Volume Growth

Q3 2025, DBC delivered solid business results despite a challenging environment marked by declining hog prices and recurring disease outbreaks. Revenue reached VND 4,481bn (+37.3% YoY), led by strong revenue of the Feed–Farm–Food segment of VND 4,405bn (+31.6% YoY). NPAT reached VND 342bn (+9.9% YoY) but declined 32.5% QoQ, primarily due to a 9.8% decline in pig farming segment’s gross profit margin, driven by a drop in the hog price to VND 60k/kg (-11.8% QoQ).

For 9M 2025, DBC reported revenue of VND 12,270bn (+23.2% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,358bn (+156.2% YoY), achieving 83.0% and 87.3% of our full-year 2025 forecasts, respectively.

Hog price fell in Q3 2025 but is expected to recover by late 2025 to early 2026 as demand rebounds while supply tightens. 

We maintain our financial forecasts for DBC, with 2025 revenue to reach VND 15,398bn (+13.4% YoY) and NPAT to reach VND 1,555bn (+102.2% YoY), based on an average hog price of VND 68,000/kg. For 2026, we forecast revenue of VND 16,332bn (+6.1% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,143bn (-26.5% YoY), based on an average hog price of VND 60,000/kg. Therefore, we maintain our FW2026 Target Price of VND 31,800/share (+26.7%) and recommend to BUY the stock.

Given DBC’s high beta and earnings sensitivity to pork prices, we recommend an active trading strategy rather than a passive buy-and-hold approach. Our preferred entry point is around VND 28,000/share, corresponding to a hog price band of VND 55,000–60,000/kg (NPAT 2026 of VND 1,144bn). We recommend taking profit around VND 34,800/share, when hog prices reach the upper range of VND 65,000–70,000/kg.