BIDV (HOSE: BID) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +18.9%

Lagging In Credit Growth Among SOCBS, Asset Quality Remains A Watch Point

In Q3 2025, BID’s credit growth reached 8.8% YTD, lagging behind other SOCBs such as VCB (+12.4%) and CTG (+15.6%), and below the system average of 13.4%. The bank recorded TOI of VND 21,154 bn (+22.6% YoY), driven by solid NII of VND 15,173 bn (+8.5% YoY) and a sharp rebound in Non-NII to VND 5,982 bn (+83.0% YoY) from a low base in 2024. Provision expenses surged 38.9% YoY amid asset-quality pressure, resulting in NPAT-MI of VND 5,954 bn (+15.6% YoY).

We expect BID’s NIM to improve in the coming quarters from the current low base, supported by stronger credit demand in Q4 2025 driven by the seasonal acceleration in credit demand toward year end. In addition, while short-term loans still dominate the portfolio, the proportion of medium and long-term loans has steadily increased from 33.7% in Q1 2024 to 37.9% in Q3 2025, which should help stabilize margins over the medium term.  BID benefits from a strong brand advantage and is expected to maintain deposit rates at competitive levels compared to JSCBs.

As 9M2025 results were broadly in line with expectations, we maintain our financial projections for BID. We keep FY2025 TOI at VND 86,997bn (+7.3% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 27,658bn (+9.9% YoY). For FY2026, our forecasts also remain unchanged, projecting TOI of VND 97,294bn (+11.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 31,687bn (+14.6% YoY).

Given the stock’s over 5% decline in the past month and is now trading at 1.6x FY2025F P/B and 1.4x FY2026 P/B. We maintain our 12-month target price of VND 45,800/share, implying a 18.9% upside from the closing price of VND 38,500 on Nov 6, 2025. Therefore, we upgrade our recommendation from ADD to BUY.

Consolidated Results

o    TOI: VND 61,143bn (+11.9% YoY)

o    PBT: VND 23,633bn (+7.2% YoY)

o    NPAT-MI: VND 18,551bn (+7.0% YoY)

In Q3 2025, BID reported TOI of VND 21,154bn (+22.6% YoY), while the CIR ratio improved slightly to 34.9% from 36.5% in Q3 2024. However, credit provisions surged 38.9% YoY to VND 6,186bn, leading to NPAT-MI of VND 5,954bn (+15.6% YoY). ROE continued to improve, reaching 17.6%, up from 17.0% in the previous quarter.

For 9M2025, TOI grew 4.1% YoY to VND 61,143bn, while operating expenses remained well-controlled, with the CIR stable at 33.8%, broadly in line with the three-year average of 33.7%. Credit provisions increased 18.8% YoY to VND 16,862bn amid continued asset quality pressure. Consequently, NPAT-MI rose 7.0% YoY to VND 18,551bn.