Nam Long Group (HOSE: NLG) | Q3 2025 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +16.4%

STRONG 9M2025 RECOVERY DRIVEN BY SOUTHGATE, OUTLOOK STRENGTHENED BY UPCOMING IZUMI PROFIT

In Q3 2025, NLG recorded presales of VND 1,639bn, mainly from Southgate (61%), bringing 9M2025 presales to VND 5,004bn, or 34.2% of company target. Key launches in Q4—including Solaria Rise, Izumi Canaria, and Paragon Phase 1—are expected to boost momentum. Q3 revenue reached VND 1,878bn (+406.6% YoY, +143% QoQ), while NPAT-MI rose to VND 146bn, rebounding from a VND 52bn loss in Q3 2024, supported by steady handovers. For 9M2025, revenue surged 455.3% YoY to VND 3,768bn, and NPAT-MI grew 206.1% YoY to VND 353.6bn, mainly driven by Southgate, Can Tho, and EHome Southgate. Profit from the Izumi City divestment is expected to be recognized in Q4 2025, providing a further earnings uplift.

We revise forecasts to reflect actual performance and new timelines: 2025 presales at VND 9,332bn (-32.4%), revenue and NPAT-MI at VND 4,943bn (-20.8%) and VND 695bn (-33.3%), in line with guidance. FY2026 projections stand at VND 5,828bn revenue and VND 835.8bn NPAT-MI, down 23.9% and 39.3% from prior estimates.

We also incorporate new project valuations—PG An Dong, VSIP Hai Phong, and Akari 3—into our RNAV model, resulting in a higher overall valuation. Consequently, we raise our 12M target price to VND 43,750/share from VND 35,700/share, implying a 16.4% upside from the closing price of VND 37,600/share on November 5, 2025. Accordingly, we upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY.