VNDirect Securities (HOSE: VND) | Q2 2026 Update, HOLD – Upside +12.4%

Earnings Boosted by One-Off Gains, While Core Operating Momentum Weakened

2Q26 Performance

VND reported a strong headline performance in 2Q26, with revenue reaching VND 1,869bn (+10.1% YoY, +3.4% QoQ) and PBT surging to VND 1,133bn (+117.6% YoY, +73.0% QoQ). However, earnings were largely supported by strong investment income and a VND 313bn one-off provision reversal related to corporate bond investments, while underlying operating momentum weakened. 1H26 PBT reached VND 1,787bn (+84.9% YoY), fulfilling 59.2% of management's FY26E guidance.

Core brokerage performance remained under pressure. Brokerage revenue declined sharply amid weaker market trading activity, while HOSE brokerage market share fell to a record low of 3.96% in 2Q26. Margin lending growth also remained subdued, with the margin loan-to-equity ratio staying at only 60.0%, reflecting the company's conservative balance sheet expansion despite higher margin lending yields.

Overdue receivables declined to VND207bn from VND1,962bn at end-1Q26, while the corporate bond portfolio increased by a broadly equivalent amount, suggesting that the Trung Nam Construction exposure was effectively reclassified back into bond investments following the restoration of principal collectability. This supported a VND 313bn one-off provision reversal, the ultimate recoverability of these legacy exposures remains a key risk to monitor.

Earnings Forecast

We expect VND's earnings momentum to moderate in 2H26 as persistent brokerage market share erosion and subdued margin loan growth continue to weigh on core operating performance.

We revised FY26E/FY27E ADTV forecasts to VND29tn/VND32tn (from VND31.7tn/VND35.5tn), reflecting a more challenging macro and equity market environment. We also raised funding cost assumption to 5.5% (from 4.0%), lowered investment yield assumptions, reduced HoSE brokerage market share forecast to 4.3% (from 6.3%) and margin loan forecast to VND 14tn (60% of equity, from 72%).

As a result, we lowered our FY26E NPAT forecast by 12.1% to VND 2,180bn (+7.8% YoY, 9.7% below management's FY2026 guidance), while FY26E core NPAT, excluding the one-off provision reversal, is estimated at VND 1,931bn (-4.5% YoY). Our FY27E NPAT forecast is lowered by 24.6% to VND 2,211bn, implying 14.5% growth over FY26E core earnings.

Target Price and Rating

We revised down our 12-month Target Price to VND 18,550/share from VND 23,650/share. Based on the closing price of VND 16,500/share on 24 July 2026, our revised target price implies a potential upside of 12.4%. We therefore downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD.