Vietcap Securities (HOSE: VCI) | Q2 2025 Update, ADD –1Y Upside +7.9%

Performance Was Impacted By Proprietary Trading

VCI reported strong revenue growth in H1 2025, thanks to robust performance of the brokerage segments, especially in Q2 2025. As a result, VCI has achieved 46.5% of its annual revenue. Notably, in Q2 2025, VCI reported revenue of VND 1,160bn, a 26.6% YoY increase, marking the highest quarterly revenue ever recorded. However, VCI also recognized loss from selling financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) of VND 646bn in Q2 2025, led to a NPAT of VND 184bn in Q2 2025 (-34.1% YoY), and VND 479bn in H1 2025 (+0.4% YoY).

We revise up our 12M target price for VCI to VND 44,600/share, which implies a 7.9% upside from the July 24 closing price of VND 41,300/share. Thus, we update our recommendation to ADD (from BUY) given that its share price has surged significantly from our previous call. Our model suggets 3Y target price at VND 65,400/share (+58.3% upside). Therefore, we maintain our BUY recommendation for the long term.

The adjustment is supported by both improved company fundamentals and a more favorable market environment. Vietnam’s stock market has shown robust performance in recent weeks, underpinned by resilient macroeconomic indicators and improved investor sentiment. As a result, market liquidity has surged, with the average daily trading value (ADTV) in July reaching approximately VND 31.5tn. As such, we have revised ADTV for H2 2025 to VND 30tn, marking an increase of 41.7% compared to H1 2025. Besides, the return of foreign institutional investors (FII) has gained momentum. Given VCI’s strong positioning as a leading institutional brokerage house, the company is well-placed to capture this upswing in institutional flow and trading activity.