Techcombank (HOSE: TCB) | Q2 2025 Update, ADD – 1Y Upside +10.1%

Record Q2 2025 Profit Thanks To Strong Credit Growth Despite NIM Compression; TCBS IPO As Key Catalyst

In Q2 2025, TCB delivered a record quarterly profit on the back of expanding credit and lower funding costs. For H1 2025, PBT reached VND 15,135bn, equivalent to 49.3% of our previous full-year PBT forecast and 48.0% of management’s guidance, keeping performance on track to meet FY2025 targets.

We revise our a 12-month Target Price of TCB from 31,650 to VND 38,750/share, up 22.4% from the Target Price on our initiation report, based on: (i) upgraded bank fundamentals, with FY2025 credit growth raised to 18% (from 17.5%), and (ii) therevision of TCBS valuation from USD 2.0bn to USD 4.0bn.

As of July 25, TCB has significantly outperformed the banking sector, delivering a 44.3% YTD return and rising 36.7% since our initiation on April 24. Following a revision of our Target Price to VND 38,750/share, which implies a 10.1% upside from the July 25 closing price of VND 35,200, we are upgrading our recommendation to ADD at the current market level.

We also highlight two potential catalysts for further upside: (i) Vietnam’s potential inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Markets Index by September, and (ii) a successful TCBS IPO with a valuation above USD 4.0bn. These developments could prompt a sector-wide re-rating, lifting TCB’s P/B multiple and driving higher valuation.