SSI Securities (HOSE: SSI) | Q2 2025 Update, HOLD - 1Y Upside +2.9%

Robust H1 Performance, Share Price Has Run Substantially Though

SSI delivered solid business results in H1 2025, with total operating revenue reaching VND 5,152bn (+20.4% YoY), fulfilling 53.1% of the company’s FY target. Brokerage market share on HOSE improved significantly in recent quarters, rising from 9.18% in 2024 and 9.93% in Q1 2025 and 10.85% in Q2 2025. In addition, as of end Q2 2025, margin loan book expanded to VND 33,134bn, up 50.6% YTD, reflecting a strong demand from retail investors when market rallied.

We have made upward adjustments to SSI revenue and profit forecasts, with a revised 12-month forward NPAT-MI projection of VND 3,949bn, up 17.9% from our previous forecast. Given the anticipated sector re-rating driven by improving market prospects and SSI’s distinct competitive advantages, we also revise upward P/B multiples to 2.0x from previuosly 1.8x and P/E multiples  to 20.0x  from previous 18.0x, reflecting stronger conviction in both sector momentum and SSI’s ability to outperform.

As of August 8, SSI's share price has delivered strong performance, rising +36.8% YTD and +44.6% since our initial call was released on January 7, 2025. With our revised 12M target price of VND 36,500/share, implying an upside of +2.9% from the closing price of VND 35,500/share on August 8, 2025, we update our recommendation from BUY to HOLD.

We also note that a potential upgrade to Emerging Market status by FTSE this September could enhance SSI's multiples by 15%–20%. In such case, SSI’s target P/B ratio shall be adjusted from 2.0x to approximately 2.3–2.4x and its potential upside shall be enlarged. We would factor in our valuation modelling once the market upgrade is confirmed.