Phu Nhuan Jewelry (HOSE: PNJ) | Q2 2025 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +15.1%

Weak H1 2025 Performance, But Gross Profit Margin Improvement Saved The Overall Picture

PNJ reported weak H1 2025 results due to softer jewelry demand as anticipated. In H1 2025, revenue slid 22.1% YoY to VND 17,217bn and net profit (NPAT) decreased 4.1% YoY to VND 1,119bn. Thanks to better inventory management as well as a lower percentage of gold trading in total sales, GPM improved to 21.5%, up 5.8% YoY.   

Regarding Decree 24, we note that while PNJ qualifies for gold import under the amended Decree 24, the company remains cautious and is unlikely to proceed with importing raw gold for jewelry production until the gap between domestic and international gold prices narrows from the current 15% to a more reasonable 1–2%. However, we believe the new regulation will indirectly support jewelry demand through improved market stability, rather than bring immediate changes to PNJ’s gold supply.

H1 2025 Financial Performance:

Revenue: VND 17,217bn (-22.1% YoY, reached 54.5% of our previous FY2025 forecast)

NPAT: VND 1,119bn (-4.1% YoY, reached 57.1% of our previous FY2025 forecast)

PNJ posted a modest decline in its H1 2025 performance due to weaker jewelry demand. However, in Q2 alone, PNJ jewelry retail revenue reached VND 4,755bn (+4.6% YoY, - 28.8% QoQ), outperforming the overall jewelry demand in Vietnam, which declined by 20% YoY and 29% QoQ in Q2 2025 as PNJ was able to capture demand for gold bar to 24K jewelry amid limited gold tael supply.

We project 2025 revenue reach VND 32,570bn (-14.0% YoY) and NPAT 2025 reach VND 1,924bn (-9.0% YoY) respectively. We maintain our 12M Target Price for PNJ is VND 99,600/share and keep a BUY recommendation for PNJ, with a potential upside of 15.1% from the closing price of VND 86,500/share as of August 04, 2025.