Nam Long Group (HOSE: NLG) | Q2 2025 Update, HOLD – 1Y Upside +9.6%

In Q2 2025, NLG recorded a 206.2% YoY increase in revenue, driven by delivery of 105 land lots in Can Tho project and 46 units in Akari phase 2. However, Q2 2025 NPAT-MI declined -31.4% YoY, due to one-off gain from the Paragon project divestment recognized in the same period last year. For H1 2025, NLG delivered a net revenue of VND 2,064bn, an increase of 351.6% YoY and an NPAT-MI of VND 208bn, up 206.1% YoY.

H1 2025 PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW

o   Presales: VND 3,334bn (+24.5% YoY, meeting 30.8% of our previous FY 2025 forecast)

o   Revenue: VND 2,064bn (+351.6% YoY, meeting 34.2% of our previous FY2025 forecast)

o   NPAT-MI: VND 207.7bn (+206.1% YoY, meeting 29.3% of our previous FY2025 forecast)

We revise our 12-month Target Price to VND 45,000/share, up +3.4% from previous target price of VND 43,500/share, reflecting: (1) The addition of a new Hai Phong project (EHome PG An Dong); (2)  updated assumptions on selling prices, development costs, and cash collection schedule; and (3) VND 270bn financial income from the divestment of 15.1% at Izumi City.

As of August 4, NLG has delivered a 15.8% YTD return and gained 31.7% since our initiation was released in February 2025. With our revised Target Price of VND 45,000 per share, a potential 9.6% upside from the August 5 closing price of VND 41,050, we update our recommendation to HOLD at the current market level.