Hoa Phat Group (HOSE: HPG) | Q2 2025 Update, BUY –1Y Upside +24.2%

HPG sustains solid growth momentum in H1 2025, supported by resilient domestic steel demand and the extension of anti-dumping measures (AD20) on hot-rolled coil, which reinforced pricing power and margins. The group’s revenue reached VND 73,532bn (+4.4% YoY), while NPAT-MI rose to VND 7,601bn (+22.8% YoY), driven by margin expansion amid lower input costs and robust domestic consumption.

Looking into H2 2025, we expect steel demand to benefit from accelerating public investment disbursement and the resumption of construction projects. The ramp-up of Dung Quat 2 will lift HRC output to 8.6 million tons/year, while the upcoming launch of a 700 thousand tons/year rail and special steel plant will support key national infrastructure projects. In agriculture, elevated pork prices continue to boost profitability, while real estate remains stable but selective.

We maintain our 12-month target price for HPG at VND 31,000/share and reiterate a BUY rating, implying an upside of 24.2% from the closing price of VND 24,950/share as of July 31, 2025.