VPBank (HOSE: VPB) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY – 1Y Upside +50.7%

Strong Q1 2026 Performance, Nim Pressure Remains A Key Watchpoint

VPB reported strong Q1 2026 results, with consolidated PBT of VND 7,912bn, up 57.9% YoY (down 22.6% QoQ), fulfilling 19.2% of management’s full-year target (VND 41,323bn) and 21% of our previous projections. These results reflected strong credit growth despite NIM compression, while solid fee income was partly offset by FX losses and weaker bad-debt recovery income.

As of end-Q1 2026, total loan to customers reached VND 1.06 quadrillion (+10.2% YTD), surpassing VND 1 quadrillion for the first time in VPB’s history. Credit growth significantly outperformed the overall sector growth of +3.18% YTD.

As of end-Q1 2026, total funding reached ~VND 822tn (+11.8% YTD), with customer deposits at VND 683tn (+8.7% YTD). Overall, VPB customer deposit growth was quite strong, but still trailing credit growth. VPB is using other channels for funding, including certificate of deposit. The Loc Thinh Vuong certificate of deposit gained strong traction, rising to over VND 43tn (+63% YTD). Valuable papers also surged 29.6% YTD to VND 139tn, indicating increased divergence to market-based funding.

VPB’s 2026 strategy centers on strengthening its ecosystem to deliver a comprehensive suite of financial solutions to customers. VPB recently established CAEX and plans to raise charter capital of CAEX to VND 10tn to qualify for participation in Vietnam’s pilot crypto asset market program.

We maintain our FY2026 forecast for VPB with TOI of VND 92,621bn (+24.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 29,713bn (+23.9% YoY). While we remained positive on the FY26 outlook, supported by impressive customers loan growth and stronger fee income, we are more cautious on NIM as funding costs is expected to rise faster than asset yields. As a result, our FY2026 NIM forecast is at 5.4–5.5%, compared with 5.6% in FY2025.

We maintain our BUY rating on VPB, with FW2026 target price at VND 39,900/share, offering +50.7% upside from VND 26,500/share on April 29, 2026.