Vinamilk (HOSE: VNM) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY - FW2026 Upside +18.4%

Solid Q1 2026 Performance Amid Input Cost Volatility And Global Uncertainties

In Q1 2026, VNM delivered strong results, with revenue reaching VND 16,149bn (+24.6% YoY), driven by both domestic and export market. Domestic revenue rose to VND 12,080bn (+20.4% YoY), while export revenue surged to VND 4,069bn (+39.1% YoY, +27.6% QoQ). Besides, GPM expanded to 42.7% (+2.6% YoY, +2.3% QoQ), while SG&A-to-revenue ratio declined by 1.9% YoY to 25.9%, driving Q1 2026 NPAT growth of 54.8% YoY to VND 2,429bn.

As of Q1 2026, VNM operated 850 stores, expanding by 50 stores YTD. Following these results, the company completed 24.4% and 25.2% of our FY2026 revenue and NPAT forecasts, respectively.

We maintain our FY2026 forecasts, projecting revenue of VND 66,300bn (+3.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 9,711bn (+3.2% YoY). However, rising whole milk powder (WMP) and skim milk powder (SMP) prices remain key risks that could pressure margins in the coming quarters. As of May 05, 2026, WMP and SMP prices increased 9.8% and 38.3% YTD. To mitigate this risk, management proactively secured raw materials at favorable prices and may implement selective ASP increases of 2–3% if input cost inflation persists.

In addition, VNM also maintains an attractive dividend policy, with FY2025 cash dividends of VND 4,350/share, implying a dividend yield of 7.7%, above the current 12-month deposit rate of 5.5–7.0%.

Based on the above, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on VNM, with a FW2026 target price of VND 72,100/share, implying a potential upside of 18.4% from the closing price of VND 60,900/share as of May 8, 2026.