Vinh Hoan Corporation (HOSE: VHC) | Q1 2026 Update, BUY – FW2026 Upside +19.3%

Earnings Recovery In Progress, Fingerling Costs Remain The Key Watchpoint

In Q1 2026, VHC delivered revenue VND 2,954bn (+11.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI VND 266bn (+37.9% YoY), fulfilling 21.3% and 17.6% of our FY2026 forecasts, respectively. Q1 is often the lowest season in term of revenue due to seasonality, while earnings growth was mainly driven by the core pangasius segment, where revenue increased 14.2% YoY to VND 1,546bn, supported by an 8.7% YoY increase in ASP to USD 3.09/kg as VHC shifted exports toward higher-value markets, particularly the US.

GPM improved to 14.6% (+1.9% YoY), mainly driven by a more favorable product mix (collagen & gelatin) with higher contributions from value-added products. Meanwhile, financial income increased 45.5% YoY thanks to lower FX losses, while SG&A expenses remained well controlled at 4.8% of revenue, supporting strong NPAT-MI growth of 37.9% YoY.

We maintain our FY2026 forecasts for VHC, projecting revenue of VND 13,892bn (+11.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,513bn (+6.7% YoY). However, rising raw fish and feed prices remain key risks that could pressure margins in the coming quarters.

VHC also proposed a 2026 cash dividend of VND 3,000/share, implying a dividend yield of 4.9% at the current share price of VND 61,200/share as of May 14, 2026, marking the company’s highest cash dividend payout in the past eight years since the 40% payout recorded in 2018.

Based on the above, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on VHC, with a FW2026 target price of VND 73,000/share, implying a potential upside of 19.3% from the closing price of VND 61,200/share as of May 14, 2026.